Consider your timeline for Nike stock
Since the recent Nike quarterly earnings report, the stock price dropped 20% in one day (June 28, 2024) and continues to hover around $72 - $75 per share. This has raised concern for employees as they rely on Nike stock to fund a significant portion of their investment strategy and lifestyle needs.
Below are 4 thoughts on the recent price drop and action items you can implement to move forward during this downtime.
Give yourself time to recover
It’s easy to lose sight of this when the stock price is rising. The focus goes towards remaining invested for as long as possible so you don’t miss additional investment gains and forget that volatility can disrupt your strategy.
In our blog post from August 1, 2022, we analyzed the recovery period for Nike stock price when there is a 20% downturn. We can’t predict how long this recovery period will take, but history tells us that on average, it takes 339 days.
Action Items:
Stock options: The most common approach is to exercise and sell your Stock Options by converting it to cash before the expiration deadline. You may want to consider the less common option to exercise and hold the stock. This gives you an indefinite timeline to hold the stock and strategically wait until the right time to sell. For the exercise and hold strategy, you need to have cash to purchase the stock. For example, to exercise and hold 100 shares at $75 per share, you need $7,500 cash to purchase, so plan accordingly.
Strategically diversify: Diversify new ESPP and RSU purchases. Selling new shares at the time of purchase does a couple of things: (1) Avoids the risk of loss in value, (2) allows you to diversify into a balanced investment portfolio, and (3) gives time for your older Nike stock purchases to recover.
Strategically raise funds when needed to minimize taxes
Rather than focusing on “how much cash do I need”, look at each of your Nike investment buckets and determine how you can get the cash you need in a tax-advantaged way.
Action Item:
Tax analysis: For RSUs and ESPP, look at each Lot to determine which holdings would sell at a capital gain and which would sell at a loss. Review critical factors such as (1) how much cash do I need, (2) how much investment will remain, (3) what is the net tax impact of what I’m selling, and (4) how long until I need to raise more funds.
Re-evaluate your financial plan
When the stock price is down, it’s an opportunity to evaluate whether changes to your financial plan are required to stay on track with achieving your long-term goals.
Action Items:
Maximize benefits: Specifically ESPP stock while the price is low. At the next ESPP enrollment, consider increasing your deferral percentage to the maximum of 10%.
Adjust investment strategy: Evaluate your overall concentration of Nike stock. If Nike stock is a large portion of your overall investment portfolio, consider ways you can maximize your savings going forward into a diversified portfolio to reduce your overall exposure.
Stock choice: Think about your upcoming Nike stock choice. If you’ve taken 100% RSUs in the past, does it make sense to change your strategy to 50/50 stock options or 100% stock options?
Prioritize your expenses: Determine which expenses are most important to you. Consider reducing or delaying expenditures that do not align with your highest priorities. This approach can feel difficult at first, but the more you buckle down during this season, the greater impact it will have on your financial plan.
Re-visit your college savings plan
Many Nike employees rely on their stock options to fund their kid’s college expenses. If this was your strategy, your options are underwater unless you have grants from 2014 (which expire soon) – 2017.
Action Items:
Evaluate other funding sources: Do you have other investment levers that can be used to fund college expenses?
Cash flow: How much cash flow do you have within your annual budget to fund college expenses? Will this be sufficient to cover part or all of the expected cost?
Deferrals: If you reduce your retirement deferrals, will this increase your cash flow enough to fund annual college expenses?
Prepayments: If you are pre-paying any loans (ie: paying extra on your monthly mortgage), consider paying the minimum to free up cash flow for college expenses.
Grants and scholarships: Are there opportunities to explore this further?
Adjusting expectations: Does this prompt a discussion with your kids around sharing the cost of college expenses?
Consider your timeline. When Nike stock is increasing, it’s easy to lose sight of your timeline because the focus is not missing out on the appreciation. The recent volatility is a reminder that time is the most valuable asset when investing. The action items above are the starting point to navigate through the volatility. Please reach out to us so we can continue the discussion and help implement these strategies to remain on track with your long-term financial goals.
