Charts of Q2 2022

April, May, and June 2022 have been long, emotional months. The purpose of our charts of the quarter posts is to provide financial updates, and it may be no surprise that this post is focused on interest rates, housing prices, and market volatility.

1: Interest rates increased by HALF A PERCENT in May 2022

On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by ½ a percent. While ½ of a percent may feel insignificant, this was the most significant interest hike in more than two decades.

What does an increased interest rate mean for you? It means that borrowing money from the bank is more expensive. It has also historically been good news for your saving and investment accounts.

Specifically, this chart summarizes investment returns since 1990 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by at least ½ a percent. As you can see, on average, stocks returned +20.5%, and bonds returned +13.8% one year after the interest rate hike. Only time will tell what happens, but it wouldn’t surprise us if returns got better in the coming months.

2: How long does it take to get your money back?

During Q2 2022 – from April 1 – June 30, the S&P 500 returned -16%. Checking your account balance hasn’t been a pleasant experience in Q2 ’22.

Most people want to know the answer to the question, “how long is it going to take to get my money back?” Since this was a recurring question this quarter, Andrew Gladhill wrote a blog post called Payback Periods: How Long to Make Your Money Back. We encourage you to read the full article, but we selected one chart to share from this post.

This chart states that 95% of the time, it takes nine months for investors to, once again, reach another all-time high in their account. Said differently, most of the time, the market rewards investors who stay invested for at least nine months. What does this mean for you?

Remaining invested and, in the case of 401(k) accounts, continuing to invest your dollars is the easiest way to see your account balance recover. This can be an uncomfortable experience, and we recommend reaching out to our team if you feel uneasy or want to brainstorm ways to adjust your account strategies.

3: Are we heading into a recession?

Are we heading into a recession? Are you feeling worried, fearful, and frustrated? As this chart illustrates, the Google Trend for the search engine “recession” since the beginning of 2022 has quadrupled.

Everyone is looking for an answer that doesn’t exist. We cannot predict if there will be a recession or how long it will last. We know that recessions are a regular, unavoidable part of economic cycles.

Here are a few questions to ask yourself in preparation for a recession:

Do I have job security?
Does my spouse have job security?
What fixed expenses do I have? (Examples may include mortgage payments, car payments, daycare payments, and recurring health care payments)
Do I have emergency savings to pay for my fixed expenses?
Would a recession change my current investment strategy?
Does anyone really know if there is a recession coming?

We also know that compared to the recent past, US Households currently have more cash and cash equivalents in their bank accounts. This chart, dating back to 2015, shows the rise of cash on hand for US Households. We may be more prepared for a recessionary period than we think we are. As the previous recession preparation questions suggest, it is essential to have liquidity during a recessionary period to help pay for fixed costs, protect against a loss of income, and to avoid selling investments while the markets are volatile.

If you need help answering any of the questions above, please contact your team of advisors at Human Investing.

4: Mortgage rates doubled in Q2 2022

Mortgage rates, as you may have seen, surged in Q2’22. Average mortgage rates went from 3% to 6%, which is the most significant one-week increase in interest rates since 1987. At about 6%, 30-year mortgage rates are back to where they were in November 2008.

We wanted to share this chart which illustrates the increase in mortgage payments since 2015. As you can see, monthly mortgage payments have increased over time, but 2022 has experienced a remarkable surge in average monthly mortgage payments.

Let’s see how the rest of summer unfolds. Suppose you are in the market to buy a home. In that case, we highly recommend understanding all the costs associated with purchasing a home, including closing costs, property taxes, monthly payments, and repairs.