As I write this in May 2022, most major asset classes are down for the year. Stocks, bonds, foreign or domestic, it’s hard to find an investment producing positive returns right now. Since no investor likes to see the balance in their account drop, we have received an uptick in client inquiries about whether it’s worth staying invested. The short answer is yes; we still recommend staying invested. Markets have historically recovered, and grown to new highs. Panicking and selling your investments when they’ve gone down in price is unhelpful for achieving your long-term investment goals. Staying invested when the markets are roiling is easy to say, hard to do.

If you’re interested in a longer, more data driven response about why you should stay invested, keep reading. A lot of client’s concerns boil down to “How long is it going to take for me to make my money back?”. Let’s call this amount of time it takes to hit a new all-time high for a portfolio the “payback period”.

For the returns, I pulled the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks for equity, and the Ibbotson SBBI US Intermediate-term (5-year) Government Bonds for fixed income. This data compiles the monthly returns from January 1926 to March 2022. I took a 100% equity portfolio (100/0) and added 10% bonds to compare different allocations (i.e. 60/40 is 60% equity 40% fixed income). I assumed monthly rebalancing.

Source: CFA Institute

As the graph shows, the more conservative your allocation, the shorter the time-frame necessary to make your money back. The most aggressive allocations (100/0 and 90/10) can take about 15 years to make your money back. A more balanced investor (40/60 to 80/20) would expect around 7 years as the worst case to make their money back.

I want to emphasize these numbers reflect the absolute worst scenarios over nearly a century of investing. We could always see a new worst case. Typical experiences are usually not as extreme. Even just looking at the 2nd longest time-frame to make your money back, and the longest payback is just over 6 years.

Source: CFA Institute

In most cases, you will make money in a relatively short amount of time if you remain invested. The final graph shows how long your investment horizon needs to be to have made money 95% of the time. As you can see, a majority of the time markets reward investors who stay invested for at least 9 months. That 5% of times where you haven’t made money in 9 months, we have seen some major draw-downs that took years to recover from. Make sure you have positioned yourself in a way where you are comfortable with all possible outcomes.

Source: CFA Institute

So, what do we do with this information? Some perspective for us all:

Understand the Time-frame you’re Investing For

If you’re not accessing funds for 15+ years, you shouldn’t worry about how long it takes to make the money back.

• If you are investing in a retirement account, keep doing that.

• If you move money monthly into a brokerage account, keep doing that.

If you are planning on accessing the funds in 10 years or less, consider incorporating bonds in your allocation to reduce risk, and shorten the time frame to recover a loss in value for your portfolio.

If you’re currently accessing your funds, have a financial plan to understand how you handle downturns in the markets and still achieve your financial goals

• Strategies for this include having a certain amount of cash on hand to cover market downturns, adjusting your budget as needed, etc.

Stay Invested

When you see your account balance down, know that remaining invested is the best way to recover lost value. Most of the time, you won’t have to wait for years to see your balance recover.

Plan in a way that Helps you Sleep at Night

If you can’t handle the thought of waiting seven years to make your money back, a 70/30 allocation may not be right for you. Have a financial plan in place that accounts for the worst-case scenarios, so you know you’ll be able to ride out any volatility in the markets.

Understand History can Only Tell us so Much

The markets could always find a new worst-case scenario. Use history as a guide for setting expectations, not absolute certainty of what is to come.

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Do not let your emotions get in the way of making smart investment decisions.

It is difficult to separate emotions from reality. We often view the world through the lens of whatever emotion we are experiencing, and unchecked emotions can give rise to suboptimal financial decisions.

My role as a financial advisor allows me to have many conversations focused around money. Through these conversations over the last 12 months, I have witnessed the gambit of the emotional response to the stock market and its volatility. What I discovered is that an individual’s emotional response tends to be heightened by three things:

1. The more zeros at the end of their account balance.

2. The amount of negative news consumed.

3. The greatest of which, whether they have taken the time to build a financial plan.

In his book The Behavioral Investor, psychologist and behavioral finance expert, Dr. Daniel Crosby reminds us that our emotions can’t be trusted when it comes to making investment decisions.

“The fact that your brain becomes more risk-seeking in bull markets and more conservative in bear markets means that you are neurologically predisposed to violate the first rule of investing, “buy low and sell high.” Our flawed brain leads us to subjectively experience low levels of risk when risk is actually quite high, a concept that Howard Marks refers to as the “perversity of risk.” – Dr. Daniel Crosby

Like the stock market, our emotions are cyclical. This cycle of emotions experienced as an investor can range from pure euphoria to utter despondency (lack of hope).

Source: Russell Investments

This emotion is often not dictated by the investor, rather it is the investor’s response to the market. The wild thing is, we have seemingly experienced all of these emotions over the last 12-month period. Compare the cycle of emotion to the S&P 500 over the last year.

Is it a coincidence that these two images almost mirror each other? I don’t think so.

It is completely normal to have an emotional reaction to your finances. Your account balances are often in direct relationship to your future financial freedom and well-being. However, it is only when an investor acts on these emotions do they get themselves in trouble.

Investor’s making short term emotional changes to their investments hurt their chances at long-term returns. A study conducted by DALBAR, Inc. discovered that over the last 30 years, the average mutual fund investor underperformed the market by almost 6%! Their finding is that investor’s change investment strategies too often to realize the inherent market rates of return.

Here are some action steps for avoiding emotional investment decisions:

• Look inward — Take an introspective look to acknowledge your emotional response over the last 12-month market cycle. Will you emotionally make it through another market drop? Right now is the time to build self-awareness, because the reality of the market is not IF it will have another correction, but rather WHEN.

• Look outward — Do you have someone to help you make wise financial decisions throughout life’s many emotions and seasons? Someone, to stand between your emotions and your finances? This is one of the many ways a financial advisor can add value to your comprehensive financial well-being.

• Look forward — Does your risk profile align with your financial plan? Are you taking on too much risk (or, too little)? Take some time today to review your holistic investment strategy and consider making any changes while the market has rebounded since its market low on March 23rd.

Our team at Human Investing realizes your family’s financial well-being is just as much “human” as it is “investing”. Let us know how we can help, contact us at Human Investing or call at 503.905.3100.

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Our solution to identifying your investment risk… and why it matters

This past weekend my wife and I went and visited two of our best friends in the hospital who just had a baby girl. When we got the text that the baby had arrived, we were in line at the Nike employee store. As we got up the counter, my wife became teary eyed with thoughts of happiness for our friends, as you can imagine the check in person didn’t quite know what to do! The cool thing about being at Nike at that time, was that we were able to pick up this little number as a gift for the newborn, which I would highly recommend simply because it's awesome.

Later that night we went to visit them, and I had not been to a doctor’s office/hospital in a while, and while I was there noticed the “pain tolerance scale” up on the wall in our friend’s room.

This scale has always made me laugh as often times it is usually relative and doesn’t define what the parameters are. What signifies a 10 on the pain scale? A broken leg? Something more painful? I know for me it was crashing my bike and meeting the gravel face first.

This got me thinking about a financial scale that many of us have seen before called the “risk scale”. Most people who have invested before have probably been asked the question, “Are you more of a conservative, moderate, or aggressive investor?” And most people say some form of, “Moderate, I think? I obviously want to make money but don’t want to lose it all”. Similar to the pain tolerance scale, the question needs to be asked; what does conservative, moderate, or aggressive mean? This is a reasonable question many people have a hard time answering. Human Investing has recently partnered with Riskalyze, a company that looks to provide tangible risk information that investors can act on.

risk 2

Here is how it works: After completing a simple risk questionnaire you are given a risk score from 1 to 100. This score acts as a benchmark (investor lingo for pain scale) and explains what to expect during different market conditions. For example, if you are invested in the S&P 500 your risk score is a 78 according to the assessment. It also shows you that generally in a given 6 month period of time you can expect a best case return of 28% and a worst case return of -18% with a historical average rate or return of around 9%. As the investor, YOU get to decide if you’re comfortable with that and can look at different investment options or portfolios that fit your goals and timeline best.

So why does this matter? Because over time investors typically under-perform the market due to things like lack of discipline, changing strategies, and trying to time the markets. We believe that a more informed investor who understands their risk and the upside and downside of their allocation can fair better. When I show this tool to 401k participants I often use the following sound bite to explain that most investors are emotional and have a short-term view; In 2014 the 20 year backward looking S&P 500 annualized return was 9.85% while the average US equity mutual fund investor annualized return was only 5.19%! Yes you read that right. Over a 4% difference per year the average investor missed out on.

Our hope is by equipping investors with information like this people can have a better understanding of which investment mix is best for them and how to stick to it over time. Thus, creating higher returns by increasing discipline.

If you are looking for an explanation about the pain scale, I am just as confused as you and probably can’t help. But, if you would like to have a conversation about your risk score and how to implement it, don’t hesitate to email someone from our team or give us a call!

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When investors experience market turbulence, it’s never fun. It’s a lot like being on a plane when the fasten seatbelt sign goes on and the wings of the craft start flapping like a bird in air. Our investment firm has experienced 30% of the worst days in the market since the year 1899, so we’ve endured our share of turbulence. The purpose of this note is to address participants investing in their 401k plan and to share lessons we’ve learned from the past.

1. Participants should understand what is “normal" turbulence in the stock market. A correction (aka turbulence) is typically defined by a decline of 10% or more with a “bear market” declining 20% or more. Although corrections and bear markets never feel good, they should be considered normal and expected. In the last 85 years, there have been 51 corrections or bear markets. In the last five years alone, we’ve had six periods of declines of nearly 8% or more. In short, normal never feels good but normal is normal.

2. As the Dow Jones has increased in value from the year 1987 (1,793) to today (16,000), the drops in point value don’t have the same impact as in earlier times. Take for example the one day crash in 1987 where the market lost 8% of it’s value in a single day with a 156 point drop. If that same sort of drop were to occur today, we’d need to see a 1,600 point plunge. The bigger number seems scarier on the surface but its impact as a % loss on the portfolio is the same. Put another way, 156 point drop today would not even be a 1% drop…

3. When thinking about what to do when turbulence sets in, participants MUST think about their personal timelines for their money. In most cases, for someone 50 years or younger, you’ll have 15+ working/investing years before retirement. During those 15 years you get the benefit of being able to buy into the market as it declines. Ultimately, without having to think about it, you are buying lower with the hope that the shares you are purchasing NOW will be worth more in the future. For those nearing retirement, the question about what to do is a bit more complex. At or near retirement making sure you have adequate cash and safe investments to cover living expenses is everything. Having several years worth of living expenses put aside in CD’s, cash, or money markets makes a ton of sense. This enables you to hold onto the stock or equity investments you have until the turbulence subsides.

4. Managing your emotions during the turbulence is wise. Much like unbuckling your seatbelt and walking around the cabin during a rough flight, making snap decisions about your 401k during turbulent times can be dangerous to your financial future. Again, although it does NOT feel good when the market(s) get choppy, acting prudently and slowing down can greatly benefit you and your retirement funds. One of the many benefits of being a Human Investing 401k client is access to our 8am-5pm Monday to Friday call in line. One of our advisors can walk you through all your options as well as give you advice based on your specific account. In the end, whatever you opt to do, your decision will be well thought out, informed and discussed.

There are many important lessons we’ve learned from the past. This note is intended to take those lessons and to provide you with some perspective and thoughts on how you might want to approach volatility in your account. In the end, if you have questions and want to talk it over with one of our advisors, please call us as we would be happy to hear from you.

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