Social Security remains a cornerstone of American retirement planning, yet it’s often shrouded with concern and misinformation. As the dialogue about its future grows increasingly pessimistic, many people question its reliability and role in their retirement income plans. Understanding the current state of Social Security is crucial for making informed decisions about your financial future.

Perception vs. Reality:  The Role of the Trust Fund

Much of the anxiety around Social Security comes from media reports highlighting the shrinking trust fund. This often leads to the mistaken belief that the program is on the verge of collapse. But the real issue isn’t mismanagement—it's demographics. As baby boomers retire and people live longer, benefits are outpacing payroll tax revenues.

Historically, Social Security operated on a pay-as-you-go basis. Since 2010, however, benefits have exceeded payroll tax collections. To bridge the gap, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has been tapping into the trust fund, a practice that will continue until the fund is expected to run out by 2033[i]. While this sounds alarming, it doesn't mean Social Security will vanish.

Misunderstandings About Insolvency

A common misconception is that the depletion of the trust fund means Social Security will go bankrupt and cease to exist. In reality, even after the fund is exhausted, payroll tax revenues will still cover approximately 79% of retirement benefits[ii]. This isn’t a doomsday scenario; it’s a call for strategic policy adjustments.

Fixing the Funding Gap – Potential Reforms

The SSA has proposed several solutions to address Social Security’s funding gap. Here are some of the most viable strategies:

1. Increase Social Payroll Tax – Projections show Social Security's long-run deficit is 3.5% of covered payroll earnings[iii]. Raising payroll taxes by this amount—1.75 percentage points each for employees and employers—could secure full benefits through 2098, with a one-year reserve at the end.

2. Increase the Social Security Wage Base—In 2024, the first $168,000 of earned income is taxed at 6.2% each for employees and employers; self-employed individuals will pay 12.4%.[iv] Increasing the Social Security wage base can help address the shortfall.

3. Increase Full Retirement Age (FRA): Currently set at age 67 for individuals born in 1960 and beyond, the FRA dictates when retirees can claim full retirement benefits without reduction. Each one-year increase in the FRA equates to roughly a 7% cut in monthly benefits for affected retirees. Raising the FRA to 70 would reduce benefits by nearly 20% at any given claiming age.[v] This change aligns with historical precedent, as the FRA was originally 65 for most of Social Security’s history.  

4. Invest in Equities: The SSA could explore investment strategies to enhance returns, following successful models utilized by other countries like Canada or systems such as the US Railroad Retirement System.                    

These measures would require political compromise but could ensure the program’s sustainability and continued support for retirees.

Planning for a Reduced Benefit Scenario

Amid ongoing discussions about Social Security reforms, it’s essential to hope for the best but prepare for the worst—acknowledging the potential for reduced benefits if corrective actions fail to shore up funding. The looming risks of benefit cuts necessitate careful consideration alongside other retirement planning factors, including life expectancy, additional income streams, risk tolerance, inflation, and potential spousal benefits.

Consider your Options in an Ever-evolving Social Security Landscape

Despite the challenges and negative perceptions, Social Security is not on the brink of collapse. With informed decisions and potential policy adjustments, the program can continue to support retirees for many years. It's crucial to stay informed and consider the evolving landscape of Social Security in your retirement planning. We’re here to support you. Contact us to meet with an advisor and learn more about your options.

Sources

[i] Social Security Administration. (2024). The 2024 OASDI Trustees Report. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2024/

[ii] Munnell, Alicia H. 2024. "Social Security's Financial Outlook: The 2024 Update in Perspective" Issue in Brief 24-11. Chestnut Hill, MA: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

[iii] SSA, The 2024 OASDI trustees report. p.17.

[iv]Social Security Administration. (2024). Contribution and benefit base. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html

[v] Springstead, G. R. (2011). Distributional effects of accelerating and extending the increase in the full retirement age (Policy Brief No. 2011-01). Social Security Administration. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2011-01.html) 

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Corporate retirement plans (401(k), 403(b), 401(a), 457(b), etc.) made up a total of $9.3 Trillion as of December 31, 2022. It goes without saying that these types of accounts make up a significant portion of how Americans save for retirement. In this series we want to help equip and educate investors on how to successfully navigate selecting their investments, sticking to a game plan, and ultimately growing their account in the most efficient way possible.

What matters the most

Asset Allocation

Luckily, studies have been done and papers have been written about the number one determinant of portfolio success. As the pie chart below shows, allocating funds appropriately across asset classes is BY FAR the number one factor that determines portfolio success.

Put differently, ensuring that an investor selects a fund (or funds) that diversifies their investments will outperform the investor who spends time on trying to time the market or ensure that the security they selected is superior to other investments in the same peer group. This can be accomplished using a Target Date Fund, Target Risk Fund, Model Portfolio, or by creating a custom asset allocation.

Expense Ratio (or Fund Cost)

The next variable that we would say matters most is ensuring that the fund or funds you select has a low expense ratio. What’s low? In 2022, the average expense ratio for a index fund was 0.05%. In our opinion, if the index fund you select has an expense ratio of less than 0.15% we think you are checking the box on selecting a low-cost option.

What matters less

Historical Performance

Talking about historical performance is no easy task. The point here is that when you are on your retirement plan website and looking to learn about the investment options, the majority of the information is about the performance of the funds. And while that information might stand out the most, it’s actually not the most helpful. We think about fund performance track records in this framework:

1. Asset class performance is more important than actual fund performance. More specifically, owning the Large Cap asset class is more important than trying to select a specific large cap manager.

2. So much can go into why a specific fund performed well or did not perform well over the last 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, or 10 year performance period. Only looking at these variables has not been a good indicator of if a fund is going to perform well on a go forward basis. A majority of the top-half performing funds fall out of the top half after 5 years.

3. Our recommendation, if you are going to look at funds in a more in depth way look at variables like risk-adjusted return or the specific track record of the management team. Another option is to simply select a low-cost index fund. 

A visual guide on what to look for

We created this table to help provide a road map for selecting investments. This sample fund menu contains; investment options, historical performance, cost, and if the fund should be used on a stand-alone basis (provides ample asset allocation) or should be held alongside other investment options.

What to talk about your company’s retirement plan?

Schedule time to meet with an advisor below or e-mail Andrew at andrew@humaninvesting.com.

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