Posts tagged investing strategies
Do's and Dont's of a Bear Market
 

It can be agonizing to watch your portfolio decline during a down market. Our human nature is to react erratically, which can be destructive to your financial plan. While it is important to stay the course, that doesn't mean you need to be idle. There is always an opportunity to do something to better your financial house. Here are a few productive things you can do as an investor during a down market: 

Do: 

Take Advantage of Opportunity

Invest cash: Risk assets like stocks are discounted, and as such, now may be a timely opportunity to invest the cash you have on the sidelines. Yes, markets may go down further, so be prepared for additional short-term losses. When investing additional dollars, don't let a desire to time the market-bottom perfectly get in the way of taking advantage of the opportunity.

Look for opportunities to Tax-loss harvest: Tax-loss harvesting allows you to get a tax break for poor-performing investments in a brokerage account. This strategy allows a taxpayer to offset other taxable gains and potentially claim a deduction against ordinary income. This is an unseen benefit for investors who have a brokerage account and want to use poor-performing investments to lessen their tax burden. (See Tax Tips in a Down Market

Keep an Eye on your Financial Goals

Rebalance: Market moves can result in a drift of your account's investments. Rebalancing your investments to your desired investment strategy can restore the appropriate level of risk and return to your account. Making sure you have an appropriate amount in stocks will help you take advantage of the possible market rebound. 

Accelerate Savings: Are you systematically saving into an investment account, such as a 401(k), IRA, or brokerage account? Consider making a larger contribution now to take advantage of the opportunity. This is a similar thought process to investing cash. 

Roth IRA conversions: Stock market downturns make for an opportunity to convert traditional IRA dollars to a Roth. When you convert dollars to a Roth IRA, you are responsible to pay income tax on the conversion amount. You are trading the tax-deferred (pay taxes when you withdraw) growth for tax-free growth. Before you complete a Roth conversion make sure you understand the tax implications and talk to your advisor or tax professional. 

An example: Your IRA was valued at $10,000 and is now valued at $8,000 due to market loss. To convert your IRA to a Roth, you would pay income tax on $8,000 rather than the previous amount of $10,000. Any growth from the time of the conversion is now tax-free for qualified withdrawals.  

Stay Educated

Read a book - My favorite personal finance book is the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. Housel provides timeless lessons about personal finance, human behavior, and long-term investing. Give it a read and let us know what you think. 

Don’t:

Don't invest short-term cash: Strategic cash cushions do have a significant place in a financial plan. Now is a prudent time to assess your cash holdings. Never use short-term dollars to invest. 

Don't watch your account or market too closely. Staring at a screen during periods of market fluctuations can be poisonous to your emotional wellbeing. Log out, take a deep breath, and go for a walk.

Don’t panic sell - The key thing for many investors is not to panic, stick to your plan. Remember that market declines are normal. This is the price of admission for long-term returns. 

 What We’re Doing for our Clients

Our team at Human Investing continues to carry our methodical approach to help steward our clients’ dollars. Our investment analyst team is constantly looking for opportunities to tax-loss harvest and rebalance. All the while, our Investment Committee persists in our due diligence for opportunities to enhance our investment strategies. 

While it is important to stay the course, that does not mean you need to sit on your hands and do nothing. We hope to provide you with a list of constructive things you can do to better your financial plan. Please let our team of credentialed advisors know if there is anything we can do to help you navigate the current market.  

 
 

 
 
 

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Investing 101: How Dividends Work
 

A dividend is when a publicly listed company pays out a portion of earnings to shareholders. These can be paid out in cash or given as additional stock. These are given out to reward investors for entrusting their money with the company.

Who Determines the Dividend?

The Board of Directors decides two things:

  1. If they are going to issue a dividend or invest the profits back into the company

  2. The amount of the dividend

So, how does the Board make these decisions?

Whether or not a company issues dividends to shareholders often depends on how long the company has been around. Companies like Coca-Cola who have been around for a long time have lower growth potential and tend to pay a higher dividend because they see it as the best return for shareholders. If the Board of Directors thinks investing their earnings back into the development of the business will provide a greater return long term, they are most likely going to forego paying out a dividend or increase an existing one.

Many companies, especially newer companies, do not issue dividends. They retain earnings to help with future business activities. See the example below.

Important Dates to Note

These four dates are important to know if you qualify for a dividend and when you will receive it for owning shares of a company.

  1. Announcement date or declaration date: This is when the Board of Directors announces its intention to pay out a dividend.

  2. Ex-Dividend date: The ex-dividend date is the trading date on which the dividend will not be owed to a new buyer of the stock, this is one business day before the record date.

    For example: If the stock has an ex-dividend date of June 26th you will only receive the dividend if you purchased the stock before the 26th of June. If you bought the stock on the ex-dividend date or after you will not receive the dividend this time around.

  3. Record Date: This is the day on which the company checks its records to identify shareholders of the company.

    Note: If you own shares of the company on its record date and sell your shares after the date you will still receive the dividend for that period. If you want the dividend you need to make sure you purchase the stock at least two business days before the record date.

  4. Payment Date: This is the date the company issues the dividend and shareholders are paid out. Companies can pay dividends on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis.

How Does the Dividend Affect Share Price?

When a company declares a dividend, the price tends to incorporate that dividend into the stock price. The day of the ex-dividend date is the day when the stock price is affected most by the dividend. Since new buyers of the stock will not receive the dividend the price of the stock typically drops by the dividend amount. This is because the dividend is locked into being received by the shareholders as of the previous market close, instead of the new buyers.

How to Receive your Dividend

To receive a dividend for owning shares of a company you must own the shares before the ex-dividend date. If you plan on buying the stock before the ex-dividend date, ensure you place the buy two business days before the record date so that trades have fully settled.

How are Dividends Taxed?

In the tax world there are two types of dividends: qualified and non-qualified.

Most dividends received will be qualified dividends where they will taxed at capital gain rates and receive preferential tax treatment. However, there are a few instances where dividends can be non-qualified and taxed as ordinary income. Such as the examples below.

  • Dividends paid out by REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts)

  • Dividends paid on employee stock options

  • Dividends paid by tax exempt organization.

  • Dividends paid out by credit union, loan associations, insurance companies, mutual savings banks

Dividends are a Great Perk for Owning Stocks

Investing in companies that pay a strong dividend can be a good way to receive a return on your investment as they pay out cash on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Keep an eye out for companies where the dividend isn’t sustainable based on profits. Lastly, make sure to know how your dividends are going to be taxed so you don’t have any surprises when tax time comes around.

 
 

 
 
 

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The Importance of Portfolio Rebalancing and Market Timing
 
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What a season it has been.  I hope and pray that each individual and family member receiving this note is healthy and safe.  My goal over the coming months is to increase the volume of written communication.  These notes will not replace our regular scheduled tax, planning, or portfolio updates.  Instead, they will supplement those conversations and provide a financial perspective that can be communicated efficiently in writing.  The purpose of this note is to discuss our position on market timing and portfolio rebalancing.

Portfolio Rebalancing

We believe that the financial plan is the seminal document for investors seeking to accomplish long term goals. Each financial plan is prescriptive in the amount of saving and portfolio return that is required to accomplish the goals outlined in the plan.  The asset allocation decision is an important one—given it considers risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals[1].

The goal of rebalancing is to minimize risk and recalibrate, rather than to maximize return.  The process of rebalancing takes the imbalance that is created by certain asset classes over time and recalibrates those asset classes.  It takes the asset allocation that was originally prescribed by the financial plan and reorients the portfolio to its intended mix of stocks, bonds, and cash.

For most portfolios, recalibration should occur a few times a year.  This is particularly true in retirement accounts, given there is no tax liability for creating gains.  In trust accounts as well as individual and joint accounts, there is a sensitivity to tax gains as a possible consequence of rebalancing.  Every effort is taken to minimize tax liability in those types of accounts.  However, it can be hazardous to let the concern over taxes negate the discipline of regularly rebalancing.  I can think of too many instances where a client avoided rebalancing their account out of concerns for taxes—only to have the market go down. The tax liability for rebalancing was ultimately dwarfed by the loss of principle due to the market decline.  In short, it is rarely advisable to let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

Market Timing

The most common question I receive is, “when should we sell out?”  My typical response is never.  If an investor has a financial plan, which accounts for planning-based return expectations and subsequent asset allocation, the portfolio should always be properly positioned for risk and return.  If the goal of “selling out” is to reduce risk, the action of selling implies the original allocation was incorrect. 

In the past, there have been a few occasions where dramatically reducing risk by selling equities and raising cash makes sense.  Or, to sell a portion of the stock investment and place the proceeds in bonds.  But those reasons have to do with new information about the client situation, which prompt a change in the asset allocation. As an example, years ago, we had a client let us know that their business was struggling, resulting in the potential that their retirement account would need to be tapped for an emergency.  Liquidating equities in their account was a response to a change of plans and circumstances—this is a plan modification and not market timing. 

There is ample research dating back to the 1980s which suggests timing the market[2] or being able to predict the direction of the market is challenging at best[3].  Therefore, we believe in rebalancing “to recapture the portfolio’s original risk-and-return characteristics”[4], and we rely on the financial plan as the authoritative document to prescribe the proper mix of stocks and bonds for each client we serve.


Sources

[1] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box2600, 19482-2600.

[2] Brinson, G. P., Hood, L. R., & Beebower, G. L. (1986). Determinants of portfolio performance. Financial Analysts Journal42(4), 39-44.

[3] Butler, A. W., Grullon, G., & Weston, J. P. (2005). Can managers forecast aggregate market returns?. The Journal of Finance60(2), 963-986. 

[4] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box2600, 19482-2600.


 

 
 

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What is the Secret to Successful Investing?
 
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Through the end of 2019 and dating back 20 years, the S&P 500 returned 6.1%, as described in Table 1 below. During that same time period, a balanced account consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds returned 5.6%, while the “average investor” returned just 2.5%.

Table 1

Table 1

The “average investor”, according to JP Morgan and Dallbar, is any investor investing in mutual funds. The report shows the flow of mutual fund buying and selling. The use of mutual funds is the best way to perform a field experiment and infer approximate returns for those buying and selling mutual funds. 

It is implied that those buying mutual funds are more individuals, households, and smaller institutions. Larger institutional clients typically own the investments directly.

So, what’s the deal with the average investor returns?

Why don’t more people invest 100% of their money into the S&P 500 or something similar? The short answer is that while any investor can put their money into the S&P 500, few are able to hold through the ups and downs.

Table 2

Table 2

Looking at Table 2 (using the same 20-year time period), the S&P 500 has seen intra-year drops, that were on average nearly 14%. Investors owning just the S&P 500 would have had to hold tight over those 20 years to achieve the 6.1% return, which is easier said than done. To be sure, there is so much that goes into selecting an allocation for a portfolio. But given the times we are in, I thought it would be useful to lay out a framework for successful investing.

  1. Diversify — In my nearly 24 years of advising clients, I have seen just a few that have been 100% invested in equities. Since 1950, the average all-stock portfolio return was a little over 11%. Interestingly, a 50% stock and 50% bond portfolio for that same period yielded just under 9%. Although an investor may not have the temperament for an all-stock portfolio experience (because of the volatility described in Table 2), they can still save and invest. Through a balanced portfolio, investors can experience a fraction of the expected volatility while still achieving solid returns.

  2. Plan — It baffles me that so many investors focus on the return of the stock market. From my point of view, the only number that should matter is the return an investor needs to achieve their stated goals. Recently, we ran planning calculations for a client that needed 5.5% returns to make all of her financial goals come to fruition. Since working with Human Investing, she has achieved a 6% net return, allowing her to achieve all of her goals. Investors are best off spending time developing a plan and then building a diversified portfolio to achieve those plans. 

  3. Stay in the market — Since your financial plan serves as your road map to achieve your financial goals, it is imperative to stick to the plan. Following the plan means staying invested even when the world appears to be falling apart. But, what if you decide not to follow the plan and get out of the market? It may not be so much about the getting out of the market but about getting back in. Table three describes the negative impact of market timing. Although market timing can be costly, the greater challenge may be the decision on when to get back into the market.

  4. Investing is forever — Successful investors have a forever time frame they measure in a lifetime, not a day. The accelerating adoption of day trading, market timing, and other gambling-like tendencies go against everything I have ever read and learned about successful investing. Take, for example, Warren Buffett, whom many consider the greatest investor of our generation. He has amassed 95% of his wealth after the age of 65. Although I would place Buffett near the top of the list as the greatest investor of our generation, a key contributor to his wealth accumulation has been the length of time he has spent investing. This is a crucial lesson for those who look to get rich quickly and bypass the hard work of saving and investing over a lifetime.

Table 3

Table 3

 

 
 

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Equity Returns Are in Your Favor: The Positives Outweigh the Negatives
 
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“Stocks are too risky for me.”

“You shouldn’t invest anything in stocks unless you’re prepared to lose all of it.”

“Investing is just another form of gambling.”

I have heard these concerns and many other reasons why people are nervous about investing, particularly in stocks. The ups and downs of the stock market can be difficult to stomach. This year, we saw one of the fastest drops in history as COVID-19 hit the world. The S&P 500 was down just over 30% from the beginning of 2020. Then stocks rallied back. At the end of July, the S&P 500 was positive for the year 2020. This is a wild ride no matter how you look at it.

The fear of short-term losses in investing is referred to as “myopic loss aversion”. The idea is that the fear of short-term losses scares investors away from riskier assets like stocks. As such, investors tend to invest more conservatively than they should, resulting in lower long-term returns.

Long-term stocks are a wonderful tool to grow your assets above the rate of inflation. Growing your savings and spending power over time is attractive, and for many it is essential to achieve their financial goals. The volatility of stocks along the way? No one looks forward to that. 

How risky are stocks in any given year?

If we look at historical returns for the S&P 500, a curious picture emerges:

s&p 500.jpg

Since 1937, the S&P 500 has had a positive return in 63/83 years, or 76% of the time. For reference, that is a solid “C” and a passing grade in any class I have taken.

For example, pretend you put $100 in the stock market on January 1 every year. In years with a positive return (76% of the time), on average you would see that $100 grow by 19.61% to $119.61. In years with a negative return (24% of the time), you would see that $100 shrink by an average of -12.19% to $87.81. Long-term, the odds are in your favor to grow your assets.

Invest with a Stable Foundation

There are certainly risks to owning stocks. It is important to ensure you have an emergency fund  to cover unexpected job loss or life expenses. It is also important to determine how much risk you can handle, both financially & emotionally, so you are not tempted to panic and sell when you see your account balance go down. A financial plan may be helpful to illustrate the dangers of investing too conservatively or too aggressively and may help to determine the risk that makes best sense for you.

If you need help understanding the risks and benefits of investing in equities, please contact our team at Human Investing. 


 

 
 

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Maximizing the Effects of Trade Wars
 

Do trade wars have an impact on the economy and market? The simple answer is…

It depends (Freeman, 2004).  Krishna, Mukhopadyay, and Yavas (2002) determined that free-trade can hurt the economy when capital markets are distorted.  While at the same time, trade can positively impact the economy when labor markets are in equilibrium.  Whether you are a free market zealot or, believe globalization was an experiment gone wrong, this trade war is not just about trade and tariffs.  It is a part of a much larger conflict between the U.S. and China, which in addition to trade/tariffs, encompasses politics, ideology, and even the current global geopolitical order.

In our view, regardless of the outcome of the current trade negotiations, this is just one chapter in a book that will continue to be written over the decades to come. Anyone looking for a neat and clean expeditious resolution will likely be disappointed. The uncertainty surrounding this conflict will continue for a long time and is out of our control. 

So, what can be agreed upon and has strong academic roots?

What appears to be universally accepted is policy to eliminate deficits, maintaining market-oriented exchange rates, improving the education system, strengthening the legal system, and increasing competition amongst domestic firms (Baldwin, 2003).  These are essential economic considerations both now and into the future—and what will move the needle long term for our economy, our markets, and our country.

How can you prepare for what happens? Having a Financial Plan.

At Human Investing, we emphasize comprehensive financial planning (we call this hiPlan™), which is very different from traditional planning, which tends to focus on a single area such as investing or insurance. By taking a comprehensive approach, we can create stress-tested, long -term, adaptive plans for our clients and gaze beyond the short-term implications of news headlines.

Further, we work as a team to serve our clients.  Much like a peloton where each team member jumps out front to take the lead when appropriate, we've assembled a team of financial planning experts—each with specific knowledge that our clients can leverage for their benefit.  So why are we so focused on financial planning?  For us, the answer is simple, empirical evidence points to its advantage, and we have personally seen it work for the clients we serve.   

Several studies have shown that individuals and families who employed the financial planning process enjoy greater wealth during retirement versus those who fail to plan (Hanna & Lindamood, 2010) (Van Rooij, Lusardi, & Alessie, 2012). As a non-commissioned, fee-only firm, we can provide the most objective and independent advice, making it more feasible to optimize the financial well-being of our clients. We believe that by working with our expert team and taking a long-term and comprehensive approach to financial planning, our clients can have peace of mind regardless of the headline of the day.

Have you started your plan today?

If not, or, if you are interested in learning more about our people and process, please call us at (503) 905-3100 or let us know about your needs.

References

Baldwin, R. E. (2004). Openness and growth: what's the empirical relationship?. In Challenges to globalization: Analyzing the economics (pp. 499-526). University of Chicago Press.

Freeman, R. B. (2004). Trade wars: The exaggerated impact of trade in economic debate. World Economy27(1), 1-23.

Hanna, S. D., & Lindamood, S. (2010). Quantifying the economic benefits of personal financial planning.

Krishna, K., Mukhopadhyay, A., & Yavas, C. (2005). Trade with labor market distortions and heterogeneous labor: Why trade can hurt. In WTO and World Trade (pp. 65-83). Physica-Verlag HD.

Van Rooij, M. C., Lusardi, A., & Alessie, R. J. (2012). Financial literacy, retirement planning and household wealth. The Economic Journal122(560), 449-478.

 

 
 
How to Avoid the Negative Compounding Effect of Fees on Your Account
 
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Despite the recent awareness around fees in today's environment, it can still be challenging for investors to know what and whom they are paying.

I was reminded of this recently when we had the pleasure of welcoming a family in as new clients to our firm. When they first reached out to us, they knew something was not right with their investment situation. After reviewing their statements and a discovery call, we quickly found out why. They were being overcharged and underserved. It turns out their fees were roughly 2.12% per year. At the same time, the level of service they were receiving included one phone call per year, online access and statements.

In this article, my goal is to unwrap the fee structure that this family experienced, highlight the long-term negative impact and then provide an awareness that can help you avoid this situation.

Moreover, while this article focuses on the experience of a single family, we have seen the same cost structure apply directly to institutions as well, whether an endowment, foundation, ERISA retirement plan or other types of institutional assets.

The step-by-step on how to give up 25% of your market returns to your advisor (not recommended!)

The family mentioned above did not realize they were charged fees on fees. One layer included an advisor fee of 1.40% per year with limited services. Unfortunately, industry expertise, full client engagement, risk management, along with estate and financial planning were not part of the offering. 

The second layer of fees was the underlying costs of the investments held in the portfolio—which was new information to the clients. Even though they had a diversified mix of “institutional” mutual funds in their account, the average expense ratio of these investments was 0.72%, which was added to the 1.40%.

 Without digging deeper into other potential underlying fees such as trading costs and custodial fees, the total costs were 2.12% per year. (1.4% + 0.72% = 2.12%)

Assuming a 9% long-term average return(1) in the stock market, these clients had been giving up almost 25% of return per year in fees. Unless there is some other form of benefit or return the client is receiving, this is retirement money down the drain. In Peter Fisher’s 2018 article in Forbes titled, “Why Conflicting Retirement Advice is Crushing American Households,"(2) he points out that the annual cost of conflicted investment advice in the US is $17 billion per year. The scenario outlined in this article is case in point.

The Negative Compounding Effect of Fees

The diminishing effects of the high fees & low service model outlined above are significant. To illustrate, I have provided a compare-and-contrast to what I believe is a more reasonable fee structure of 0.85% in total fees. (This includes an advisor fee of 0.75% and underlying investment fees of 0.10%.) 

After backing out the fees for both scenarios, the difference in future account value after 20 years of saving and investing is $343,000.

If you are an institution, add a zero or two to the end of each number for a better comparison on the effects to your business, organization, non-profit, endowment, foundation, or other.

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Is the “advisor” adding $343k worth of value? That amount would more than cover health care costs for a married couple throughout their retirement years, according to recent studies(3).

 To be clear, advisors can add significant value to a client relationship. Vanguard produced a research piece called the Advisors Alpha®(4) that makes the case that an advisor can add significant value beyond the fee they charge. However, it comes through a combination of wise stewardship and planning, portfolio construction and tax efficiency. In short, it is much work that deserves fair compensation. The challenge with the scenario outlined above is that any advisor would have difficulty justifying their value at that fee level when their only service is setting up an allocation and checking in once a year.

How You Can Avoid This

Having open and honest communication with your advisor is essential. Here are a few questions to ask that can help you determine if your advisor is acting in your best interest and has a compelling service and fee offering:

Fees & Services: What services will I receive and how much will it cost?

  • Service and fee schedules should be clearly outlined so you can determine what you are receiving and how much you are paying. You will be able to measure the potential "Advisors Alpha®." A contract should explicitly outline fees and the commitments being offered such as discretionary investment management, planning services, meetings per year, insurance reviews, risk management, estate planning, reporting and more. If you are an institution this will look slightly different, but it will still be the same idea. If your advisor cannot tell you exactly how they are going to serve you and what their charges will be, it might be best to keep looking.

Investment Fees: What is the fee for the underlying investments held in my account?

  • This question will help you asses the total fee that you will be paying and not just the advisors fee. Typically these investment costs can be minimal for accounts that use individual stocks, bonds, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and index funds. However, for accounts that use actively managed mutual funds, insurance products or Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs), these fees can add up and take a toll on your long-term return.

Are you a Fiduciary: Are you a legal, written Fiduciary in all matters?

  • If your advisor is not a legal, written Fiduciary in all matters, beware that they have the flexibility to not apply Fiduciary standards in serving you. If they are a Registered Representative, Investment Representative, Broker or Insurance related, there’s a good chance they do not have to act in your best interest.

Are you an Expert: Do you have credentials or an advanced degree in your field of practice?

  • Your advisor should continue to learn and grow throughout their career. Legally, all advisors and brokers must have individual licenses such as the Series 6, Series 65, Series 7, etcetera. This does not make an advisor an expert. It is merely the cost of admission and is the SEC and FINRA's attempt to ensure there is some form of standard in the industry. Look for credentials such as CFA, CFP, CPA, or CIMA and for advanced degrees such as Master’s in Financial Planning or Master of Science in Finance. In short, credentials and advanced degrees help demonstrate the continued efforts of an advisor to learn and stay on top of trends in an incredibly complex and dynamic profession.

If you have questions about this article or any personal or institutional financial needs, we would love to help. Please do not hesitate to reach out to our team.

(1) According to the Chicago Booth Center for Research in Security Prices, from 1/1/1926 to 12/31/2017 the compound annual returns for US stocks were 10.0% and for international stocks, 8.0%. In this article, I have assumed an arbitrary and straightforward 9% average return solely for illustration. This does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied on as such. http://www.crsp.com/resources/investments-illustrated-charts

(2) https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/08/17/why-conflicting-retirement-advice-is-crushing-american-households/#4ddfd4f71355 

(3) https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/plan-for-rising-health-care-costs

(4) https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_ResVgdAdvisorsAlpha

 

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What You Need to Know About Sequence Risk
 

Image credit: Amol Tyagi

Over the last nine months since my daughter was born, I have learned to hear and translate her grunts, squeals, cries, and even noises that sound very similar to what a pterodactyl probably sounded like. The other night I woke to a cry that was not familiar. In her sleep she had stuck her foot through the slats in the side of the crib, but when she turned to pull her foot out, she could not; her foot was stuck. Putting her foot in the space between slats was easy, pulling it out…well, that was a different story.

This experience can be similar to that of an investor who has saved well for retirement but may have difficulties withdrawing dollars due to Sequence Risk. Sequence Risk, also known as sequence of return risk, is the risk assumed by an investor taking withdrawals from an investment account when receiving lower or negative investment returns. Specifically, this becomes serious early on in someone’s withdrawal timeline, as the investor/retiree ends up withdrawing a larger portion of their total portfolio than planned. Knowing what Sequence Risk is and how to plan for it is instrumental to a successful long-term financial plan. To illustrate Sequence Risk and its impact, let’s first look at the 20-year experience of two investors who are not taking withdrawals (Scenario 1) compared to the experience of the same two investors who are withdrawing from their accounts during that same 20-year period (Scenario 2).

A Scenario of Two Markets

Investor A deposits a lump sum of $400,000 in the S&P 500 (500 biggest companies in the US) on January 1, 1998. Investor A does not touch her investments for 20 years and now her balance is over $1,600,000, despite both the Dotcom Crash and the 2008 Financial Crisis. A great reward for the disciplined long-term investor.

With Investor B we see a similar scenario. She deposits a lump sum of $400,000 in the S&P 500 and doesn’t touch it for 20 years. Except this time the annual returns of the S&P 500, while staying the same, are randomized in their order and weighted for an early market downturn of two consecutive years of negative returns (-37% and -22.1%). After 20 years Investor B arrives at the same balance of over $1,600,000.

Scenario 1:

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For the long-term investor, the sequence of returns does not seem to influence the investor’s portfolio if he or she is not withdrawing from their investments. Both Investor A and Investor B, while having very different market experiences, arrive at the same place. A great case for the long-term investor to not balk at market volatility.

The Sequence Risk for a Retiree

Where the order of returns does impact the investor (i.e., a retiree) is when they begin withdrawing from their investments in a down market. To see the impact Sequence Risk has on an investor, we will look at the same investment returns experienced by Investor A and Investor B. In this scenario the difference is each investor will begin taking annual withdrawals of $20,000 (5% of beginning balance) at the end of each year.

With Investor A, we see after the market experience of the S&P 500 from 1998 to 2017, she would expect to have $618k after 20 years of retirement.

As for Investor B, when the market experience begins with a downturn for the investor, the retiree’s balance would be significantly less, only $193k. A difference in the order of returns can mean a difference of almost $425k, or a 1/3 of the portfolio size, after 20 years.

Scenario 2:

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Why does it matter?

Two retirees with identical wealth can have entirely different financial outcomes, depending on the state of the market when they start retirement and begin taking withdrawals, even if the long-term market averages are the same.

What do you need to do?

While you cannot control what the sequence of future returns is, there are things you can do to impact the success of your financial plan. If you are a long-term investor, make sure you have a plan, revisit the plan annually, and stay disciplined. If you are already in or are entering retirement, it is important for you and your advisor to plan accordingly:

Assess your risk. Appropriately assess your risk as you are entering retirement years. Assuming more risk than necessary paired with a down market can make you greatly susceptible to Sequence Risk.

Lower retirement expenses. Pay off any debt (including mortgage payments) before entering into retirement. Having fewer expenses in retirement provides flexibility for when the markets get rocky and withdrawing less is prudent (based on what was just laid out about Sequence Risk).

Have a short-term strategy be a part of your long-term financial plan. Hold assets that allow for flexible spending without having to veer from your long-term strategy. Holding cash or fixed income investments can provide short-term income sources, helping you avoid withdrawing a large portion of your total portfolio in a down market.

Continue working. If entering into a market experiencing low or negative returns, keep your job. What no retiree wants to hear after a long career of hard work! However, continuing to save and to delay retirement withdrawals by even a few years has the potential to yield long-term exponential growth.

While my daughter had no issue putting her foot in the space between slats, the issue was pulling her foot out. Dad was able to save the day. Realizing the most efficient angle, I was able to help her pull her foot out. With investors, sometimes it takes someone to come alongside and help strategize the most efficient strategy to withdraw dollars, no matter what is going on in the market. If you are planning on retiring soon and want help building a tailored financial plan and assessing the risk on your retirement accounts, let us know. Human Investing is here to help.   

*Scenarios are used for illustration purposes only. Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.

 

 
 

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Why Dollar-Cost Averaging is a Great Investment Strategy
 

A recent theme in our client conversations has been around the timing of investing. On a regular basis we hear the question, “when is the right time to invest?” especially when times are uncertain. It’s a great question, one that is worth considering, but before answering this question let me state: We at Human Investing are long-term investors. Don’t mistake that for “buy and hold,” but rather “buy and assess.” Additionally, we believe financial planning is the key to investment success. While planning does not guarantee success, it does improve the odds of a successful outcome. In our advisory practice, the financial plan informs the investment decision.

Once the plan is in place and we’ve made the decision to invest, the timing of investing may not always mean we push a button to invest one hundred percent of someone’s capital in that moment. What it does mean is that we have a thoughtful discussion on the different strategies we might utilize to put the money to work, choosing the right option based on the client’s plan and their input.

Let’s walk through an example. The chart below is a hypothetical client who invests $500 per month ($6k/year) over an eleven year period starting January 2007 and ending December 2017. For this exercise we simulated investing the $500/month into a simple total stock market index exchange-traded fund with the symbol ITOT. The total invested capital in 2007 was $66,000 with net proceeds of $136,809 on the last day of 2017. Pretty incredible results considering the eleven year time frame included small gain and loss years of 2007, 2011, and 2015 and a large loss of 39.42% in 2008.

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This is a great example of a strategy called dollar-cost averaging. Dollar-cost averaging is an investment strategy with the goal of reducing the impact of volatility on large purchases by adding small amounts of the intended purchase into the market over a specified period of time. Technically speaking, taking a lump sum and immediately investing the funds for an extended period of time is the best option. The challenge with the lump sum method is that many investors struggle to invest 100% of their money right away due to factors like willpower and emotion. With the dollar-cost averaging approach the investor puts his money to work bit-by-bit, which for many, feels good emotionally and prevents money ear-marked for investing from staying in cash too long. For these reasons and others, the methodical dollar-cost averaging approach has become the most successful way to invest capital for the long-run.

My intent is not to vilify a cash investment as bad. For many investors cash has a place and a purpose within their overall portfolio. I’m looking to highlight an effective approach/strategy for when a client’s financial plan requires a greater return than 1%.  

If you’ve asked the question, “What is this money for?” and the timeline is long-term, consider the total sum you are looking to invest, divide that sum into a reasonable time period and make a commitment to dollar-cost average those funds into the market. In doing so you won’t find that you’ve kept the funds in cash for any longer than is necessary, and you will be well on your way to your stated long-term savings and investment goal.

 

 
 

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Question. Discipline. Patience.
 

Investor Principles for Success

Investors big and small, sophisticated and simple, struggle to get the investment returns they desire. DALBAR and Associates and others have documented the performance shortfall for years, but few tangible solutions exist to close the gap between actual returns and expected returns. From what I’ve observed, I believe the core of investors and their advisor’s failure is in not asking the question, “What is the investment for? What is the savings goal?” prior to making investment decisions.

* DALBAR; Blackrock

* DALBAR; Blackrock

By consequence investors have failed to keep up with the performance of even the most passive investment. As mentioned, the success or failure of the individual investor is well documented by DALBAR and Associates. In the ten years leading up to 2016, investor returns (for asset allocation funds) were 1.89% per year. This return is far less than what a bond index (e.g. Barclays Agg.) would have yielded at 4.51%. The moral of the story? Individual investor behavior is a major contributing factor to under-performance. 

ASK THE QUESTION

Both advisors and individual investors must ask the question, “What is this investment for?” In other words, what are you trying to accomplish by foregoing spending right now and instead saving those dollars? Answering this question will create a goal/objective for the savings and will lead to investments that optimally align with the stated goal.

Consider for example Jane, a 25 year old investor with two different saving goals: 1) save for a house; and 2) save for retirement. It is fine if Jane thinks, “I’d like to be aggressive because I’m an aggressive person,” but that posture aligns much better with the retirement account that has 35-45 years before it is needed than it does for the house savings account with a 3-5 year saving and investing timeline. Because aligning investments with both the goal and the timeline is crucial when investing, ask the question, “Why am I saving. What is this for?”

BE DISCIPLINED

After you’ve answered the question for yourself and made the corresponding investments to align with your stated goal and timeline, it’s all about discipline. If like Jane you have a three to five year savings goal, then the objective would be a stable portfolio. But what if, during that time, Jane thought to herself, “The stock market is doing so well and my friend has made so much money investing in XYZ stock, maybe I’ll try and make a little more too.” While that is a fine thought, in the context of the goal and timeline, to act on it would be undisciplined. If the goal is to buy a house and it’s a short-term goal, the action for Jane is to maintain a stable job, budget her income, and stay disciplined to her investment plan since these will be key drivers in her ability to save for and purchase a house...not the stock her friend bought.

A lack of investment discipline may also impact the long-term investor. What if Jane made some aggressive choices for her VERY long-term retirement account? One day, the same friend who bought XYZ stock tells Jane, “I sold my stock. It was getting crushed. The market is crashing.” Jane may very easily feel that she made the wrong decision by investing “aggressively” in her retirement account and in reaction, sell. Being disciplined is about sticking to a prudent investment strategy based on your needs and timeline. For Jane, discipline may look like HOLDING these more volatile higher-earning investments not based on the short-term return but rather her long-term goals.

If the stated saving goals were aligned with the right investments, then there would be minimal volatility in the short-term house savings account. Similarly, with a longer-term goal (retirement) in place, Jane would expect to see more volatility with higher long-term returns than with the more stable investments she made for the house.

BE PATIENT

Whether you are an advisor or an individual investor, if you’ve asked the right questions and you have an investment plan to accomplish your goals, then be patient and wait for that plan to play itself out. If you’ve done the work upfront, then your probability for success will be much higher than if you failed to ask the question and go through the process.

Looking at the poor performance of the individual investor leads me to conclude two things: 1) too many investors have not asked the right question upfront to make an investment plan to meet their specific goals; and 2) those who may have started out by asking the right question have failed to stay disciplined to their objectives.

 

In summary,

1.       Ask the questions: “What is the purpose of these funds? What is the point of saving instead of spending?”

2.       Be disciplined

3.       Be patient

 

Sources: *BlackRock; Bloomberg; Informa Investment Solutions; Dalbar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Oil is represented by the change in price of the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Future contract. Contract size is 1,000 barrels with a contract price quoted in U.S. Dollars and Cents per barrel. Delivery dates take place every month of the year. Gold is represented by the change in the spot price of gold in USD per ounce. Homes are represented by the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Existing One Family Home Sales Median Price Index. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index, an unmanaged index that consists of the common stocks of 500 large- capitalization companies, within various industrial sectors, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Bonds are represented by the BBG Barclay U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, an unmanaged market-weighted index that consists of investment-grade corporate bonds (rated BBB or better), mortgages and U.S. Treasury and government agency issues with at least 1 year to maturity. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad-based measure of international stock performance. Inflation is represented by the Consumer Price Index. Average Investor is represented by Dalbar’s average asset allocation investor return, which utilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior. Returns are annualized (and total return where applicable) and represent the 20-year period ending 12/31/16 to match Dalbar’s most recent analysis.

 

 
 

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Investment Strategies At Different Points In Your Life
 

A blog that our advisors frequent is https://www.kitces.com. On the surface, the structure of the site may look a little unconventional, but after spending some time at the site you will realize that this guy really knows his stuff. One of his recent articles struck a chord with me. Kitces speaks to all the phases of investing and how each “moves the needle” when it comes to saving for retirement and creating an income to supplement a desired retirement. The article breaks down your working years into 4 distinct phases: Earn, Save, Grow, and Preserve. Before I get into the phases let’s have the chart below (showing someone saving $300/month at 8% earnings spanning from age 25 to age 65) guide us through the phases.

Graph-for-Andrews-blog-Aug-1-2017.png

Something that stood out to me in the article was how powerful savings is at the beginning of retirement and how impactful an appropriate allocation is towards the end of your working years.

Consider these two scenarios:

Regardless of whether you are 25, 35, or 45 if you are just starting to save what matters even more than the allocation is how much you are contributing. Imagine if you have an account balance of $1,000 and contribute another $1,000 over the course of the year. With a $1,000 contribution you’ve doubled your money (or grown your balance by 100%). In contrast, if you were to have an above average year of performance, say 10% rate of return, but did not contribute to your account balance you would have grown your account $100. While $100 is nothing to dismiss, we can hopefully agree that it's not going to impact your retirement in a drastic way. Later on in life as your balance grows that 10% return will have a much greater dollar impact, but during the early phases of saving your contributions do most of the heavy lifting when building your account.

As you continue to work and save the pendulum will slowly swing from contributions having the most impact on your account to account growth (or capital appreciation) impacting your account. The below chart (again from Kitces) gives a representation of the importance your allocation has as you progress in your career.

Graph-2-for-Andrews-blog-Aug-1-2017.png

As you can see there is truly a shift in what influences your account most over time. Let’s look at that same $1,000 contribution later in life. Assume you’ve been saving for 20 years and your retirement account has grown to $250,000. The same $1,000 contribution now has less than a 1% impact on your account with the 10% rate of return on your account doing the heavy work to increase your account value by $25,000 (keep in mind a negative 10% return has the same impact on the opposite end of the spectrum).

So where do you go from here? Your savings rate and your allocation are going to impact your account value throughout the course of your working years with each providing great impact at different times during the course of your savings life. In fact, on average after saving in an account for 20 years, market growth accounts for 75% of increases in your account! A great rule of thumb is if you can pinch pennies in your 20s and 30s to build a great base in your account while keeping a growth allocation throughout your working years, you’re on your way to a successful retirement plan.

Call 5039053100

Email 401k@humaninvesting.com Sources

https://www.kitces.com

 

 
 

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