Recently I received a note from a longtime Human Investing client. He was following up on a discussion we had back in March, where he, like others, was concerned about where the market was headed. Here is a mostly intact version of what he said:

I just wanted to thank you and acknowledge your sound advice eight months ago when everything was running off the edge. Since then, we are up more than $250K (17%) and above where we were then. The reality is that had I pulled out, I would not have gotten back in before missing most of the bounce back. Hindsight can be wonderful when you do not make the wrong decision!  My friend, who sold out in March, is still hanging onto the belief that we are headed down again. Who knows the future.

A Discussion Goes a Long Way

The purpose of this note is not to take a victory lap for the advice we dispensed. Instead, it highlights how a discussion can help put investing in perspective in a tense market moment. This client has 50% of their portfolio in safe investments, like high-credit quality bonds and cash. The remaining portion is in broadly diversified equities. Despite having enough cash and bonds on hand to live a decade without having to touch their equities, they had a concern. The discussion with this client revolved around whether they needed more than ten years of cash and bonds to live and focused less on market timing. In the end, it was the client who decided to hold tight, not me. I was the one who removed myself from the emotion of the situation and was there to ask the right questions. 

Throughout my career, my role in the client’s life has evolved. In the mid-90s, we were providing stock recommendations and picking money managers. Today, we rely on trading algorithms from Morningstar and low-cost index funds from Vanguard and Barclay’s. The quantitative work has shifted from money management to financial planning and tax planning/compliance. This work is done by my colleagues at Human Investing: Andrew Gladhill, CFA, Marc Kadomatsu, CFP, Amber Jones, CPA, and Luke Schultz, CPA. On the flip side of the quantitative work is qualitative research, which involves non-numerical data. Qualitative research comes from our interaction with clients and hearing about their feelings, emotions, and opinions. These qualitative insights are paramount to a successful retirement plan. Some might argue that emotion and opinion can derail the best of financial plans. This is at the heart of the above quote. Quantitatively, the client was in great shape, but their “in the moment emotions” almost derailed a great retirement plan. 

Dalbar Inc. provides performance information on the “average investor”. Figure 1 is a chart I have tracked for years. One of the many reasons why the “average investor” does so poorly versus the returns of various asset classes and stock/bond mixes is due to their emotions. Having someone to talk to about these thoughts and feelings can be helpful.  If the plan permits and valid concerns arise from the discussion, then changes can be made.  However, if the change is not rooted in probability and the financial plan, there is the potential that the decision being made can be harmful.

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Figure 1

Investing over the long run

It is interesting to see the S&P 500, dating back to the year I started in the financial services profession. Figure 2 depicts much relevant information. Most notably is the long term upward trending line during my career. If we went back to the early 1900s, the chart would look similar—lots of ups and downs with a trend line that moves up over time. 

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Figure 2

Sometimes, the drops in the market happen gradually—as do their recoveries (as was the case in 2000). Other times, market volatility stems from “counterparty risk,” which was the case in 2007 when the housing market and credit created uncertainty. In the most recent case, the severe volatility was brought upon by fear from a pandemic and an uncertain future. Regardless of the reason, volatility is a natural part of investing in the stock market. My observation is that volatility is permanent. Surprises (both up and down) are common. The financial plan, which is a quantitative document developed by credentialed experts, can be worth its weight in gold. It can act as a financial roadmap when you feel lost—and provide an advisor like me the data-points to dispense proper advice during anxious moments.

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On a recent financial planning call with colleague Amber Jones and a new client of our firm, we had a chance to discuss college savings for their daughter. It is always interesting to hear how families view college for their children and grandchildren. Some consider college a necessary expense, while others view college as an investment. Regardless of your college position, I thought it would be helpful to look at unemployment levels by education and income, based on the type of education an individual achieves. The numbers paint an incredible picture. Figure 1 underscores the importance of going to college. Not only are those with college degrees employed more consistently, but their annual earnings are nearly double those with a high school degree.

  Figure 1. Employment and income by education attainment

In short, Figure 1 makes a good case for encouraging your children (and grandchildren) to go to college. Yes, there are dozens of college alternatives, including starting a business or going to trade school. We all know successful individuals who never stepped foot in college or tried a university and decided it was not for them. I hope this article is taken in the way it was intended—that is, if college is an option, it is an excellent investment worth the sacrifice. 

Maybe you are a grandparent trying to think of a gift for your granddaughter—fund a college savings account. Maybe you are a parent wondering if college is a good investment—the answer is yes, fund a college savings account. Or possibly you are a teenager considering going to college—do what you can to make it happen. College is a sacrifice for families and for the one that is bold enough to attend.  Nevertheless, the payoff can be significant. As far as an investment goes, I can think of no better. 

If you have questions about college, funding a college savings account, or if you just want to have a thinking partner on the topic, call us; we would love to hear from you. College comes in many shapes and sizes. For example, a four-year degree, split between community college and Portland State University, averages less than $8,000 per year. Even if loans are required to meet tuition demands, the potential return on investment is immediate and over a lifetime, sizeable.

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On September 1st, my beautiful wife and I welcomed our new son into the world. His arrival has brought our family much joy during this season. Like all newborns, he has also brought sleepless nights, an abundance of comfort food, and disruption to our schedules and disciplines. As a result, I am here to tell you from personal experience the “dad bod” is real (find out if you have a dad bod here).

As I begin the journey to get back in shape, exercise and clean eating seem more difficult than ever before. Had I maintained my regimented sleep, diet, and exercise schedule throughout the entire pregnancy, returning to my baseline wouldn’t be as challenging. In physics, we call this inertia. In finance, we call this the compounding effect.  

Like most things in life, there is a compounding effect on our actions. 

• Consistency in showing up to work → proficiency at your job. 

• Consistency in showing up in the lives of loved ones → richer relationships. 

• Consistency with a sustainable diet and exercise plan → greater physical health. 

• Consistency in following a prudent investment strategy → increased net worth. 

Consistency is integral to the compounding effect

The inverse is also true. Disruption is a detriment to the compounding effect, a truth for our fitness as well as our investment accounts. To quote Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's partner at Berkshire Hathaway —“The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily”.

I would argue that someone’s consistency often has a greater impact than their effort and resources. Take the following example of two investors: 

• Investor A - saves $2K/year from age 26-65.  

• Investor B - saves $2K/year from age 19-26 and stops there.  

• Both achieve a 10% annual return.*  

At age 65, who ends up with more money?  

• Investor A: $883,185  

• Investor B: $941,054 

By saving and investing $2,000 at the beginning of each year from age 26 to 65 (39 total years), Investor A can expect to have a final balance of $883,185. Investor B only saves for 8 years but starts to save earlier in life than Investor A. Investor B benefits by taking advantage of 46 years of compounding growth, finishing with a balance of $941,054.

What Investor B lacks in consistency of contributions, they make up for in consistency of not interrupting the compounding effect on their investment account. I know you are probably curious, what would happen if Investor B did not stop contributing at age 26? Investor B’s account balance would be $1,902,309. Once again consistency wins out.

Start now and stick with it

• There are no shortcuts to saving for retirement and fighting the "dad bod". Starting can be difficult and sometimes painfully slow, however, the long-term results can be powerful. 

• The easiest advice to give is “never get off track.” However, like your sleep schedule with a newborn, there are some things you cannot control. It is important to know how to reassess and get back to work.  

• Building anything valuable and defensible takes time, effort, and energy. Build a plan today.  

If you want to compare notes on raising a newborn, see baby photos, or discuss the impact of consistency when building a prudent financial plan, please reach out. We are here for you.

*This is for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Investment results will vary.

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A lot has changed in 2020, but contributions limits will remain relatively consistent going forward. The IRS recently announced the 2021 contribution limits. The most notable change specific to retirement plans is that the annual deferred contribution limit will increase from $57,000 in 2020 to $58,000 in 2021.

Here are the applicable updates for the coming year.

Please let us know if you have any questions. We look forward to working with you in 2021. Take good care.

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A week ago, I came across a chart that does a nice job representing the call volume we have been experiencing at Human Investing in 2020. While the amount of calls we receive does not equal the amount of times people search for CNBC, the two data points are certainly correlated.

The image is titled, “When Markets Fall, We Search”, and ultimately shows that individuals have been more likely to seek out CNBC (market related news) any time the market has fallen over the last 15 years.

I’d argue that you could replace ‘search’ with ‘speculate’ and both the phrase and the chart would remain true, “when markets fall, we speculate”. Given the state of current affairs and the upcoming presidential election, individuals are worrying about their retirement accounts. A growing number of conversations our team has with individuals inside of retirement plans sound something like this:

Caller: “I’m fearful of (X) candidate winning the election because I’m affiliated with (Y) political party (both sides are saying this). Additionally, there is uncertainty around COVID, and I don’t feel comfortable staying invested during these unpredictable times. I’d like you (Human Investing) to help provide me with a more conservative investment recommendation.”

Before I respond with market research, I want to reiterate that you aren’t alone with your concerns and fear. We hear you. At the same time, before making any decisions related to your portfolio, take the time to think through all the angles of your decision. The rest of this post will hopefully provide some anecdotes in your process. Here are few thoughts about what it looks like to plan for the end of 2020 and into 2021. Remember, it is better to plan than to speculate.

The correlation between your Politics and Your Portfolio

Generally speaking, there is low correlation between political parties and the stock market. However, that statement is easy to say and difficult to live out in practice. Tread lightly when reading articles that try to align which stock/sectors to own with the political party that takes office. This article from 2016 couldn’t have been more wrong prognosticating that energy companies (specifically Exxon Mobile) would be top performers for the proceeding four years. It goes without saying this was a massive miss.

The bigger influence: Are you a speculator or planner?

If you think like a speculator, you will make rash decisions around your investment accounts and have no plan for re-entering the market if you move your dollars to cash or to a conservative investment.  

If you think like a planner, you will use both quantitative and qualitative measurements to evaluate your decision. For example:

• If you have a long-term horizon (greater than 15-20 years), political changes should not impact your investment decisions.

• Irrespective of the political environment, review if your account is too aggressive or too conservative for your financial landscape.

• Have a clear understanding of both candidate’s tax policies. Changes to the federal tax code should be a factor in your financial planning for the remainder of 2020 and into the future. If you are working with a CPA and/or Financial Advisor, make sure they are staying abreast with any impactful tax code changes.

  • Biden Tax Proposal

  • Trump Second Term Tax Ideas
    

Ditching The Market

Trying to time the market when negative news arises (or the anticipation of negative news) is a dangerous game to play. Luckily, we have a recent case study of how dangerous it can be. From January 1st to March 23rd, the stock market fell 30%. Since then, the market has recovered all losses and then some. If you were thinking like a spectator, it would have been easy to create a narrative around mid-March to pull your money out of the market and wait for greener pastures. If an investor did so, most likely that investor is still waiting for the market to dip and has missed out on the recent recovery as indicated by the second chart.

If you think like a planner when the market is more volatile, sometimes taking some form of action itches a behavioral scratch. Here are some ways to take action while not compromising your account:

• Raise your contribution in your retirement account to take advantage of a decreasing market (buying more shares at discounted prices).

• Open a small “fun money” account to track if your predictions are correct.

• If the market does significantly drop, look at converting pre-tax dollars to ROTH.

The concept of thinking like a speculator vs. thinking like a planner represents the cultural moment we are living in right now.

Speculating = headlines, fast moving social media, and the potential for instant gratification.

Planning = well thought out strategies that take time and often require no action.

As we head into this season of elections and COVID uncertainty, I hope this post provides some perspective on how to approach your portfolio. As always feel free to reach out to our team to talk through your thought process. We are happy to help!

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“Am I okay?” Fear ripe in my voice. 

We just heard what no climber ever wants to hear: one loud scream, three thuds, then nothing.

At that moment, I was sixty feet in the air doing the routine work of cleaning the anchor, removing all the gear that protected us as we climbed up the route and re-setting the rope to be lowered and move on to the next climb when we heard it.

That sound? It was someone falling. Hard. We didn’t know how far or how badly, but we knew that climb was higher than mine: about eighty feet top to earth.

“I got you!” He called back. “Take a deep breath. Tell me what you’re doing.”

I did. I called out every single step I was taking to clean the anchor and secure the rope back to my harness –triple checked for safety – and he held the rope. Eventually, my feet and wobbling legs arrived safely back on earth.

When you rock climb, there is obvious risk involved. Risk that you accept as the price of admission for moving higher than twenty feet – the height where, if you fall, you most likely will not be fatally injured. 

Confidence matters. Confidence in your gear, skill, weather, and your risk tolerance. Yet there is a confidence that is as important – if not more important – than all the confidence inside you: that is confidence in your belay partner.

Your partner is the one on the other end of the rope, your safety line, whose responsibility it is to pay attention, catch you when you fall, and lower you safely from sky to earth. A good belay partner must not only know the mechanics of climbing and safety but must also know you. They communicate clearly and are always paying attention – often mitigating the risks that are out of your control when you chose to leave the earth and head toward the open blue.

At no point after hearing those falling sounds did anything feel ok. My imagination was a wild hostage situation, forcing in front of my focus nightmares of gear failing and my body hurling through space.

But in reality, I was okay. I was safely anchored.  We had a plan and practice in place for climbing safely. My belay partner was paying attention, “I got you”. He heard the sounds too, but he did not take his focus off the rope and my safety.

Investing in the stock market can be a lot like rock climbing

There is risk involved in climbing your portfolio value higher than a modest, though acceptable, goal of beating inflation.

When the market takes a dive and the media heads are talking about total economic fall-out, it sure doesn’t feel okay. Do you have a good partner? A good advisor is a good partner. 

Are they paying attention? When you hear the rumble and scary sounds of the market moving and you call out, “Am I okay?”, how does your advisor respond?

At Human Investing, we are your partner on the other end of the rope

• Our climbing anchor is the fiduciary standard. Every trade, conversation, and piece of back-office work is done to mitigate unnecessary risk as your portfolio climbs, and it is all done with YOUR best interest in mind.

• Our figure-eight is clean and tight.  Your financial plan is like tying the climbing rope in to your harness – it is your safety line that serves to mitigate risk by informing how your dollars are invested to avoid and securely catch any falls. When the market crashes, we are on the other end of the line. 

• Our GriGri is loaded and locked.  We have the highest standard in investment tools.  We know our tools and we use them well, monitoring the “weather patterns” of the market, watching your portfolio as it climbs and responding as appropriate.

• “On Belay? Belay on! Climbing? Climb on!”  Before you climb you say to your partner:  Are you ready and paying attention?  We are paying attention and ready to serve you. There is more than one set of eyes on your accounts – you are more than dollars and stock holdings to us.  We will not be distracted by the noise around us.

• “I got you!”  As with any good partner: We know you.  We will respond to fear or a fall.  Your time with us is invested in discussing your goals, your values, and your reactions when your portfolio climbs or lurches.  We answer when you call, and sometimes we call you first because we also hear the sounds of the news and peers, and it may be scary. But in the end, we “got you.” We will not allow a fall-fear to inflict avoidable loss.

If you would like to talk to an advisor about how to climb your portfolio the Human Investing way, give us a call or send us an email.  It would be our pleasure to partner with you.

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Health Savings Accounts (HSA) made the roster of tax-deferred accounts. For this reason, these accounts can be a favorable component in a financial plan both today and in the future (65+ years old). HSA accounts were first introduced in 2003, and since then, their utilization among employees and employers has grown meaningfully. In order to be eligible to participate in an HSA – an employee must be covered by a High-Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) and not be enrolled in Medicare or other health coverage. Like an employer-sponsored retirement plan, a Health Savings Account offers benefits for both employees and employers. As such, their increased popularity is hardly surprising.

While there are many benefits of HSA accounts, we must also recognize that switching from a PPO plan to an HSA often results in more out-of-pocket medical expenses during the year. Yes, we agree that sounds unappealing. However, there is always more to the story.  

Benefits of HSA accounts to Employees

• The account is portable. Contributions to HSA need not be used in the tax year they are made. Additionally, if an employee changes jobs, the account is still accessible.  

• Health Savings Accounts do not impose income limitations. Unlike IRAs, highly compensated individuals are still eligible to participate in these tax-deferred accounts.

• Health Savings Accounts provide a trifecta of tax savings:

  • Employee contributions are federal-tax deductible.

  • Federal tax on investment earnings is deferred until withdrawal.

  • All withdrawals (including earnings) used to pay for qualified healthcare costs are free from federal taxes regardless of when they are made.

• Dollars contributed to an HSA are both literally and psychologically compartmentalized for medical expenses.

Benefits of HSA accounts to Employers

• The time and money employees spend on healthcare is often more efficient with an HSA. This seems intuitive because unlike an FSA, employees have ‘skin in the game’.

• Employer contributions to their employees’ HSA accounts are exempt from FICA taxes. In 2020, the combined FICA rate is 7.65% which is not insignificant.

• Offering an HSA plan further diversifies the benefit offerings for their employees.

Hierarchy of Retirement Savings

For those with an employer-sponsored retirement plan and an HSA account, there is a hierarchy for where to best save one’s dollars. This hierarchy assumes the employee does not have significant debt and has also created an emergency savings fund.

• First Priority: Take full advantage of the 401k employer match. Free money!

• Second Priority: Maximize your HSA contributes and invest your dollars for the future.

• Final Priority: If you have extra earnings, contribute the maximum to a 401k plan or a Roth IRA.

Here is an example scenario of the three-step hierarchy above:

• Sophia’s employer matches 50% up to 6%. Melissa should contribute 6% to her 401k plan, and her employer will contribute 3%. Free money – check.

• Next, Sophia should maximize her annual HSA contribution. Trifecta of tax savings – check!

• Finally, Sophia can contribute additional funds to her 401k plan to maximize her annual contribution and/or contribute to a Roth IRA.

Withdrawal Rules

There are early withdrawal restrictions for Health Savings Accounts to ensure individuals are using their account for the intended purpose: paying for medical expenses. Specifically, HSA’s incur a 20% penalty and income tax on any amount withdrawn before age 65 that is not used for medical expenses. That said, an HSA account should be opened with the pure objective of saving and paying for inevitable health expenses throughout one’s life.

When you have your inevitable health care expenses, you can also pay out-of-pocket and keep the receipts for tracking your deductible. From a long-term growth and tax perspective, this may be advantageous if you have extra savings in your bank account.  

Investment Strategy

Most HSA accounts have a minimum cash balance required. Once you have saved the minimum cash balance, the additional dollars can be invested. The investment strategy within your HSA account will vary depending on your financial landscape, but often the investment strategy is aligned with your other retirement accounts – like a 401k or an IRA.

Prioritize your health

It is absolutely imperative to acknowledge that HSA dollars should be spent on health and wellbeing as needed. As exciting and opportunistic it is to imagine a future tax-deferred balance, health today must be prioritized. We do not work in the health sector, but at Human Investing we have a team of financial advisors who are committed to ensuring your medical costs are accounted for in a strategic manner.  

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What a season it has been.  I hope and pray that each individual and family member receiving this note is healthy and safe.  My goal over the coming months is to increase the volume of written communication.  These notes will not replace our regular scheduled tax, planning, or portfolio updates.  Instead, they will supplement those conversations and provide a financial perspective that can be communicated efficiently in writing.  The purpose of this note is to discuss our position on market timing and portfolio rebalancing.

Portfolio Rebalancing

We believe that the financial plan is the seminal document for investors seeking to accomplish long term goals. Each financial plan is prescriptive in the amount of saving and portfolio return that is required to accomplish the goals outlined in the plan.  The asset allocation decision is an important one—given it considers risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals[1].

The goal of rebalancing is to minimize risk and recalibrate, rather than to maximize return.  The process of rebalancing takes the imbalance that is created by certain asset classes over time and recalibrates those asset classes.  It takes the asset allocation that was originally prescribed by the financial plan and reorients the portfolio to its intended mix of stocks, bonds, and cash.

For most portfolios, recalibration should occur a few times a year.  This is particularly true in retirement accounts, given there is no tax liability for creating gains.  In trust accounts as well as individual and joint accounts, there is a sensitivity to tax gains as a possible consequence of rebalancing.  Every effort is taken to minimize tax liability in those types of accounts.  However, it can be hazardous to let the concern over taxes negate the discipline of regularly rebalancing.  I can think of too many instances where a client avoided rebalancing their account out of concerns for taxes—only to have the market go down. The tax liability for rebalancing was ultimately dwarfed by the loss of principle due to the market decline.  In short, it is rarely advisable to let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

Market Timing

The most common question I receive is, “when should we sell out?”  My typical response is never.  If an investor has a financial plan, which accounts for planning-based return expectations and subsequent asset allocation, the portfolio should always be properly positioned for risk and return.  If the goal of “selling out” is to reduce risk, the action of selling implies the original allocation was incorrect. 

In the past, there have been a few occasions where dramatically reducing risk by selling equities and raising cash makes sense.  Or, to sell a portion of the stock investment and place the proceeds in bonds.  But those reasons have to do with new information about the client situation, which prompt a change in the asset allocation. As an example, years ago, we had a client let us know that their business was struggling, resulting in the potential that their retirement account would need to be tapped for an emergency.  Liquidating equities in their account was a response to a change of plans and circumstances—this is a plan modification and not market timing. 

There is ample research dating back to the 1980s which suggests timing the market[2] or being able to predict the direction of the market is challenging at best[3].  Therefore, we believe in rebalancing “to recapture the portfolio’s original risk-and-return characteristics”[4], and we rely on the financial plan as the authoritative document to prescribe the proper mix of stocks and bonds for each client we serve.

Sources

[1] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box, 2600, 19482-2600.

[2] Brinson, G. P., Hood, L. R., & Beebower, G. L. (1986). Determinants of portfolio performance. Financial Analysts Journal, 42(4), 39-44.

[3] Butler, A. W., Grullon, G., & Weston, J. P. (2005). Can managers forecast aggregate market returns?. The Journal of Finance, 60(2), 963-986. 

[4] Zilbering, Y., Jaconetti, C. M., & Kinniry Jr, F. M. (2015). Best practices for portfolio rebalancing. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Vanguard Research PO Box, 2600, 19482-2600.

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A credit score can be a helpful tool for your overall financial wellness. Unfortunately, rules and regulations surrounding credit scores can be complex and unclear. Read on to learn the importance of a good credit score, its components, and how to use a credit score to impact your financial health.

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF A CREDIT SCORE?

Put simply, a credit score is your financial report card. It allows lenders to assess your trustworthiness as a borrower. A good credit score not only grants you easier access to lower interest rates on loans, but it can also help you rent an apartment, finance a car, or pay down a mortgage. In short, your credit score helps you navigate the lending side of the financial world, and even gain greater financial success.

WHAT ARE THE COMPONENTS THAT MAKE UP A CREDIT SCORE?

Your payment history: Do you have a record of paying your bills, in full and on time? Doing so will boost your credit score. Paying bills on an inconsistent basis (or ignoring them completely) will lower your score. FYI, paying the minimum monthly payment is not paying your bills in full. Paying only the monthly minimum will negatively impact your credit score. Don’t be tricked by that sneaky number. Live within your means and pay your bills on time. Pro tip: Utilize due dates in your calendar, or use the reminders app on your phone, to remind you to pay your bills.

The amount you owe: Do you approach or reach your credit limit each month? The ratio of the amount you spend and the limit on your credit card is called credit utilization. It is best to keep this ratio high (i.e. 1:10 not 1:1). Leaving room between the amount you spend in any given month and the limit on your credit card will boost your credit score, while closely approaching your credit limit each month (or reaching it) will lower your credit score.

The length of your credit history: How long have you had a credit score? The longer the better! If you do not currently have a credit card, make sure you are responsible enough to own one before rushing to get one. Remember, it is better to be a responsible borrower for a shorter period of time than an irresponsible borrower for a longer period of time.

Your credit mix and new accounts: How many accounts do you have? Utilizing a variety of different borrowing options (i.e. a combination of a mortgage, an auto loan, and student loans) isn’t bad if necessary. In fact, it can actually be helpful! Try to keep open accounts to a minimum, even if you only use some accounts sparingly. Opening multiple accounts can cause lenders to be more suspicious, which in turn can lower your score. So, yes, you heard me. You might need to cancel that Hawaiian Airlines card, even if you save $150 every 2 years for your biannual Hawaii trip.

Aside from these factors, lenders may also look at your salary, occupation and job title, and employment history. These additional factors will not actually change your credit score, but they can be used in addition to your credit score to assess your trustworthiness.

WHAT IS A GOOD CREDIT SCORE?

By assessing each of these components, a three digit credit score is generated, ranging from 300-850. Any score over 700 is considered a good score.

SO, WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE TO BE A RESPONSIBLE CREDIT CARD HOLDER?

Sure, this information can be helpful, but how can it be applied to everyday life? Let’s look at an example.

Sophia is a recent college graduate.

She just received her first full-time job and is looking to build her credit score. She applies for a credit card that has a low credit limit and only uses it for her regular monthly payments: gas, Netflix, and her gym membership. She lives within her means, knowing she has other payments to consider, such as her student loans and auto loan.

Sophia gets used to living off of a budget.

Every month, Sophia remembers to pay her credit card bill, and pay it in full. As a young lender, it is important for her to stay on top of her monthly payments.

As Sophia ages, she solidifies her good spending habits.

She opens another credit card account that has a larger spending limit, and uses it conveniently for groceries, bills, and other expenses—still living within her means and paying her bills on time.

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All her daily money habits pay off.

Her credit score has deemed her a trust-worthy lender, and she is able to lock-in favorable rates for the mortgage of her first home!

Every four years, our clients are eager to talk about the election’s influence on their portfolios and the broader economy. And, as has been consistent over the last 20+ years, our response is dreadfully dull. Let me explain.

Generally, the stock market is apolitical, showing no preference to either Republicans or Democrats (Li & Born, 2006). Historically, Democratic administrations are associated with more expansionary policies. With a more inflationary approach in mind, Democratic administrations are also more inclined to juice the economy with Gross National Product expanding at 5%, versus 1.2% for a Republican administration in their first two years (Alesina & Sachs, 1988). 

The market cares little about the president, the Senate, or the House. As Figure 1 below highlights, an investor who placed $1,000 into the stock market beginning January of 1926 amassed significant wealth, regardless of the political leanings and party affiliation of the President. 

Figure 1

You might be thinking, “but this time, it’s different”. Probably not. The chart above includes years with impeached presidents, wars, crisis, and plagues, and as you can see by growth over time, the stock market cares minimally about these events. Don’t just take my word for it. Read history and periodically look at Figure 1 as a reminder.

The data we have reviewed suggests that there is almost no evidence connecting stock market performance (good or bad) with a president and their political affiliation. Consequently, households should focus on their financial plan and the rate of return necessary to achieve their goals, and less about the election and its impact on the market. 

References

Alesina, A. and J. Sachs, 1988, Political parties and the business cycle in the United States, 1948–1984, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 63–82.

Li, J., & Born, J. A. (2006). Presidential election uncertainty and common stock returns in the United States. Journal of Financial Research, 29(4), 609-622.

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Life Happens. Be prepared and consider buying life insurance.

But what kind? How does one navigate through the many types and attributes of life insurance products? To make things more complicated, high commissions create an unavoidable conflict of interest for life insurance agents, which can muddy the waters and lead to further consumer uncertainty.

To provide clarity, we will explore what life insurance is and provide a broad overview of the different policies that can be purchased. Someone’s lack of understanding should not get in the way of life insurance being a part of their financial plan.

WHAT IS LIFE INSURANCE?

Life insurance is an important tool to protect loved ones and/or business relationships. Most people should have some form of life insurance to provide cash flow in case of the inevitable.

A life insurance policy is a contract between a policyholder and an insurance company. In exchange for payment of premiums, the insurance company will pay a death benefit upon the death of the insured. The death benefit is a tax-free* sum of money paid to the beneficiaries of the policy, which are often family members.

If you have someone who relies on you for financial support, and you cannot self-insure, you need life insurance.

TYPES OF LIFE INSURANCE?

There are numerous different types of life insurance policies. Policies will vary in coverage, premium cost, cash value, investment risk, and flexibility. Of these differences, policies can be divided into two key groups: Term life and Permanent life.

Term — Term life insurance allows the policy owner to pay for coverage for a predetermined number of years, typically 5, 10, 20, or 30 years. For most, a term policy is the least expensive way to purchase a death benefit. The death benefit can be level or decreasing. Some will purchase a decreasing death benefit to match their decreasing mortgage debt.

Permanent — Permanent life insurance is just as it sounds. The policy owner may decide to have their life insurance policy last a lifetime (up to age 120), often requiring a lifetime of premiums payments. There are several types of permanent policies. Popular policies include Whole, Variable (VL), Universal (UL), Variable Universal (VUL), and Indexed Universal Life (IUL).

Key differences between a term policy and a permeant policy include price, length of policy, and a component called cash value. Permanent policies are traditionally more expensive. The higher premiums cover the cost of the death benefit (including administrative fees), and the remainder is added to a cash value.

Traditionally, the death benefit is used at death while the cash value can be used during the policyholder’s life. The cash value of a permanent life policy can be a tax-advantaged savings vehicle for the policy owner. Permanent policies are typically most advantageous once other tax-advantaged savings vehicles like your 401(k), Roth IRA, etc. have been exhausted. The cash value may be available to the policy owner to withdraw or borrow against. The cash value can accumulate in a variety of ways and is often distinguished by the type of permanent policy. See below for differences between common permanent policies and their cash value accumulation.

Whole Life — The insurance company takes on the responsibility to pay out a dividend which is based on the performance of an investment portfolio managed by the insurance company and their ability to keep their business expenses low.

Variable policies (VL & VUL) — The policyholder may invest the cash value in a selection of mutual fund-like sub-accounts. Variable policies provide a “variable” growth (& potential loss) of cash value as sub-accounts are connected to underlying investments.

Index Universal Life (IUL) — The policyholder may earn interest based on the performance of an equity index, think the S&P 500. While there is no actual money invested in the index, interest is credited to the cash value based on the performance of the selected index. IUL’s provide variable growth with a cap on maximum returns (cap rate). There’s also a guaranteed minimum annual return (floor rate often never less than 0). For example, an IUL has a cap rate of 8% and a floor rate of 0%. If the selected index grows by 20%, the cash value is credited a growth of 8% (cap rate), if the index loses value by -5% the cash value does not decrease due to the index (floor rate).

WHAT TYPE LIFE INSURANCE IS RIGHT FOR YOU?

This is our opinion, some life insurance agents and brokers with a conflict of interest may disagree.

You are young — Do you have plans for a family? This may be a great opportunity to purchase a term life policy. The younger you are, the less expensive premium payments will be.

You are the breadwinner — Term life insurance can replace lost income during working years. Life insurance prevents your surviving spouse (and children) to forgo their standard of living and helps meet the family’s financial obligations.

You are a stay-at-home parent — While there is no income number attached to a stay-at-home parent, there is a value associated with the services they provide a family. Term life insurance covering the years when kids are young can help cover the cost of child-care, housekeeping, and other responsibilities taken on by a stay-at-home parent. 

You own a home — For many Americans, a home is one of their largest assets and debts. Purchasing a term life insurance policy with coverage lasting the length of a mortgage can cover the remaining mortgage balance.  

You are a business owner — A life insurance policy is a multifaced tool for a business owner. A policy can help pay off business debts, pay estate taxes, and fund a succession plan like a buy-sell agreement. There are many variables to consider when choosing between term and permanent policies.

You have maxed out your retirement accounts — If you have maxed out tax-deferred retirement savings vehicles, a permanent life insurance policy can provide another avenue of retirement savings. Permanent policies build a cash value that can be accessed tax-free**. We do not typically recommend this to our clients because permanent policies are often very costly. The larger price tag can include investment costs (we commonly see 1-1.5%), administrative fees, as well as surrender penalties.

You want to leave an inheritance — Do you plan to spend all your retirement dollars, yet you would like to leave heirs with an inheritance? A permanent life insurance policy will provide a lump-sum benefit to your beneficiaries no matter when you pass away (can be up to 120 years).

You have a high net-worth — Permanent life insurance is best for those who are concerned about estate taxes. A lump-sum benefit at death is distributed to heirs to pay estate taxes, rather than selling-off inheritance.

Life is complex. As such, your situation may require multiple life insurance policies for you and your family.

WE ARE HERE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS

There are many options for life insurance. While Human Investing does not sell life insurance policies, we do help clients find the best policy within their financial plan. Having someone to help you navigate life insurance without incentive to sell you a product has immense value. If you have questions about what type of life insurance may be best for you, or how it fits into your financial plan, please contact us at Human Investing.

*Death benefit will be tax-free if it does not violate the “transfer-for-value” rule.

**Tax-Free-withdrawals up to basis then gain taken as loan.  Also, is not a modified endowment contract.

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One of the interesting subplots in the finance industry during COVID-19 has been the rise of the day trader. Robinhood, an online brokerage and trading platform, acts as a proxy for many investors who are rapidly opening accounts at other brokerage firms including Charles Schwab, E*T, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc.

Our firm works with thousands of employees via their company-sponsored retirement plans and has had many conversations end with a question/comment along the lines of, “What do you think of this Robinhood thing? Is it worth putting some money in there? Seems like (fill in the blank tech company) is making money! Should I buy some?”. So, I felt compelled to address the question(s) and provide some context around where a speculative trading account fits into a greater financial plan.

THE MAJOR PLAYERS

Source: Piper Sandler

E*TRADE: more users opened accounts in the month of March than any full year on record.

Charles Schwab: 1 million new accounts so far in 2020.

Robinhood: 3 million users opened accounts in Q1 2020. For perspective, there have been 13 million accounts opened at Robinhood since its founding in 2013.

The GROWING appeal OF DAY TRADING

The barrier of entry has never been lower to open an account and buy shares of publicly traded companies. Because many individuals are at home, trading is as cheap and accessible as ever, and some firms have incentive offerings (like a free share of stock when you open an account). Pair that with the stock market reaching its low point for the year on March 23rd and having one of its fastest recoveries ever (in other words the last 5 months have been a winning proposition for many investors), and you get to the point where we are today.

Today could be a euphoric place for an investor owning stocks since March. To me, euphoria looked like TMZ coming out with a trading subscription service… yikes. Stocks have only gone up, and popular tech companies have led the way. Kudos to those who might have doubled their money on a company like TESLA, but the last 5 months do not paint a realistic picture of what investing looks like over the long haul.

the emotional rollercoaster of Owning single stocks

When talking about owning a single company, I like this example. Owning a company like Amazon over the last 10 years seems like a no brainer (today). If you had invested $10,000 10 years ago, it is worth over $268,000 today. However, when you see that over the last 10 years, an investor would have had to hold through down periods of -25% over 5 times to get to where the stock is today. In other words, the stock was down 25% of its high over 5 times. Holding a company through those periods can be difficult, emotional, and in my opinion, is an objective way of capturing what owning a stock (even one that has performed as well as Amazon) is like.

Investing advice for smarter day trading

Whether you are someone who has already played around, are thinking of dipping your toe in the water, or your ego is already as big as ever because you’ve been a successful trader for the last 5 months, here is some advice on what it looks like to invest in your long-term plan vs. speculating.

Boundaries, Boundaries, Boundaries: If you are going to buy a stock on your own, don’t have it impact your overall investment strategy and long-term plans. What does that mean? Invest a dollar amount that you would feel comfortable taking a 100% loss on.

A positive outcome can mean… many things: Recently the Winklevoss twins (yes those Winklevoss twins) were quoted saying that Elon Musk is going to mine gold on asteroids orbiting the Earth, thus decreasing the value of gold and increasing the value of bitcoin (I promise this isn’t fake). One scenario is that their theory is wrong but in the next 5 years, owning bitcoin could be a profitable trade. In the same light, if you have owned a technology company or a fund that tracks technology companies since March, you have probably made money. Does this make you the next great market predictor? Most likely not. At Human Investing, we have a saying "process over results". So, in these situations, whether or not your account is checking up on your process is equally or more important.

Trading Journal: If you are seriously interested in the market and having a brokerage account, a trading journal is imperative. If you have a prediction, write it down, track it, and review your track record. It’s not a bad idea to do this for a few weeks to test the waters before you open an account.

Small Losses Can Lead to Long-Term Positive Outcomes: Here’s a hypothetical, stay with me. You read this post, you open an E*TRADE account, and deposit $200. You end up buying a few stocks and start following the market. You are following investing influencers on social media, listening to podcasts, and even watching CNBC in the morning. Then life happens. You get a little bored, lose track of your password, reset your password, and lose track again (this version of you doesn’t have LastPass 😊). Six months go by, and you see that your $200 is now $50. As a byproduct of this experience, you realize that you are better off opening up a ROTH IRA at Vanguard contributing $100 a month into an age-based target-date fund because you now care more about retiring comfortably. Your $150 loss on your account made you realize:

1. You are not interested in picking stocks and it isn’t easy.

2. You educated yourself about the market, the benefits of a ROTH IRA, and moved the needle on helping yourself retire.

Time will tell if this Robinhood movement is a fad or a long-term trend. Either way, if you have questions, want to grab coffee via zoom and talk markets, or talk longer-term planning, our team is here to be a resource.

Other Articles You Might Enjoy On This Subject

* Inside Story On Robinhood

* WSJ video on Robinhood

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