Welcome to 2024

It’s an election year and America will vote in November for a new Congress and President. Regardless of the election outcome, some investors will be pleased, while others will be disappointed. This article will help investors understand how the markets have been influenced when different political parties take control of both Congress and the Presidency. Looking at data from 1926 through 2023, the main conclusion is straightforward:

Over time the markets tend to rise, regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress.[1]

What impact does the President have on the stock market?

Democratic presidents have overseen slightly higher stock returns compared to Republicans. However, this difference is minor and not considered statistically significant. The variance in stock returns under different political parties can be attributed to the random chance of who happened to be in power at a given time. The reality is the US economy is vast and intricate, making it challenging for any individual, even a powerful figure like the President, to completely control its direction.

A recent example is the presidential election of 2016. The general expectation was for Hillary Clinton to win. When Donald Trump unexpectedly secured victory, initial market reactions led to a decline. By the following day’s market close, markets had not only recovered from the dip but ended up positive on the day. It’s hard to know how the market will respond to unexpected information, and it’s equally difficult to predict what impact a President may have on the stock market.

What impact does Congress have on the stock market?

On the other end of the federal government, a Republican-controlled Congress has typically overseen the best stock market returns. The differences are minor enough that there’s no certainty which party controlling congress (or a split) is best for the stock market.

Congress can be the more impactful part of the federal government in the long run. Executive actions are easily overridden day one by a President from the opposing party taking office. Legislation tends to be more enduring due to the requirement for a larger number of people to be involved. It’s important to note that the effects of legislation may take years to become apparent. This time lag makes it extremely challenging to pinpoint and attribute specific policies to their respective impacts on the ever-evolving dynamics of the market.

What about the White House and Congress combined?

When you widen your lens to encompass both the White House and Congress, the narrative remains consistent. Markets tend to go up irrespective of political control.

Regardless of the federal government’s control scenario, markets go up more often than they go down. 

As the 2024 elections unfold, we urge investors to remember that investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Position your portfolio to be successful in the long run, enabling it to weather unexpected changes from any source. Both parties have experienced periods of positive and negative returns while in power. Despite the inevitable changes in government, companies exhibit resilience and innovation, consistently discovering avenues to yield returns for their investors. In the intricate dance of politics and markets, a steadfast and forward-looking investment approach proves to be the key to enduring success.

Sources:

[1] Equity returns are monthly returns for the Ibbotson SBBI US Large-Cap Stocks Total Return for Jan 1926 thru Oct 1989 (data courtesy of the CFA Institute & Morningstar Direct), and the S&P 500 Total return for Nov 1989 thru Dec 2023 (data courtesy of YCharts)

Data for which party controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency is from the history.house.gov website (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Party-Government/)

Changes to Congress and the Presidency are assumed to occur Jan 1st of odd years. A split Congress indicates that each party controls either the House or Senate, but neither party controls both.

Appendix: Bonus Chart 📈

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All too often generations of students stumble through the college planning process. With college costs on the perpetual rise, it is critical to start the planning process early.

Whether you are a beginner to the college planning journey or refining an existing strategy, here’s a visual guide of some critical to-dos for students and impactful strategies for parents depending on your unique situation.

The FAFSA is a financial unlock for college students

The FAFSA is an application for federal student aid such as federal grants, work-study funds, and loans. It’s the largest source of aid to help you pay for college or career school. To qualify, the FAFSA considers the impact of income and assets from January 1 of your sophomore year of high school until December 31 of your junior year of college (assuming a student goes straight from high school to college). For a high school senior filling out the FAFSA in 2023 and graduating in the spring of 2024, you are looking at your prior-prior year’s tax return in 2021.

The FAFSA application window opens as early as October 1st and closes by June 30th of the year you receive aid (depending on the institution’s deadline). However, in 2023, FAFSA will not be available until sometime in December due to the FAFSA Simplification Act, reshaping the entire system. Details about this significant reform can be found in this article.

Follow our yearly timeline to make things a little less stressful

For high school students planning ahead for college, we’ve summarized the major considerations and to-do items. Download the PDF here to print and hang on your fridge.

We can help with education planning

College involves time, money, and emotions. By dedicating effort, you will spare yourself unnecessary stress later. Amidst all the school visits, tests, test planning, be deliberate and have a plan. If you have any questions or would like to speak with one of our advisors, please reach out to me here.

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In recent months, I’ve been pondering the US labor force and how it has changed in the last five years. Amid the ongoing conversations surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's (aka The Fed) recent decisions to raise interest rates to manage inflation, I don’t want to neglect the other part of The Fed’s dual mandate: the dynamics of unemployment and the labor force. Prior to COVID-19, unemployment was at 3.5%, the lowest rate in the last 50 years. Today unemployment is around 3.8%, and has been 4% or lower since December 2021, significantly below the median unemployment of approximately 5% the US has experienced over the last 25 years. Since March 2021, job openings have consistently surpassed the number of job seekers.

Unemployment is often considered an indicator of an economy’s health. Like inflation, you want some unemployment, but not too much. Too high unemployment indicates a weak economy. If unemployment is too low, high inflation becomes a concern. Businesses seeking to grow may be constrained because of a lack of workers, limiting overall economic growth.

Strong employment is a major reason why 2023 has not experienced the recession that many feared at the beginning of the year. I wanted to delve into the reasons behind the tight labor market, what can be done about it, and what this signifies for the overall economy.

Labor’s impact on the current economy

The fundamental assumption in most economic models is that production is constrained by two primary inputs: labor (i.e. workers) and capital (i.e. technology). While technology has yielded significant advances in productivity, the necessity for a workforce to drive economic growth remains. A shortage of labor would imply slower economic growth, potentially resulting in reduced stock market growth.

Concerns persist regarding automation displacing jobs. Some have even proposed the implementation of a universal basic income due to the scarcity of employment opportunities resulting from automation (as exemplified by former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who made this a central theme of his campaign). A variation of this concern has been present for over a century.

The latest development in automation centers around AI potentially increasing productivity to the extent that we might encounter a surplus of labor. Numerous case studies illustrate that technological change does not always materialize as successfully or rapidly as initially projected. A decade ago, there was much buzz about how autonomous cars were poised to revolutionize the world. Substantial progress has been made, but the challenge of perfecting driverless cars has proven more intricate than many had anticipated. (An example is Moral Machine, where you weigh in on how a self-driving car should navigate situations where the car must choose who to protect in an unavoidable collision).

Another illustration can be found in the excessive optimism at the peak of the dot-com bubble. While the internet did transform the way we work and introduced new efficiencies, it took significantly longer than what people in 1999 had envisioned. Forecasting the timeline for technological change impacting worker productivity is challenging.

If I had to guess, I would anticipate that in the near term (i.e. the next 5 years), we will continue to experience a tight labor market that will be a headwind to growth, for the economy and the stock market.

Retiring baby boomers present a significant challenge

By 2030, the youngest Baby Boomers will turn 65. The average American retires at 64. These retiring Baby Boomers possess the most expertise and would ideally be succeeded by Gen X workers with slightly less experience. However, Gen X is too small of a generation to fully replace the baby boomers, and Millennials & Gen Z broadly lack the experience necessary to fully replace the skills of retiring baby boomers.

This is backed by recent projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), showing that total employment is expected to grow by only 0.3% annually for the next decade, with a significant constraint being the slower growth of the working age population. Slowing growth in labor likely means slowing growth in GDP and stock prices.

Furthermore, there has been a consistent decline in the labor force participation rate over time. This is a measure of everyone 16 and older who is not in the military or an institution (due to criminal activity, mental health, or aging). Part of this reflects the aging population. As the proportion of the population beyond retirement age increases, a smaller segment of the population remains in the workforce.

How can we increase labor?

Gen Z is entering the workforce, but as a generation, they are too small to completely replace retiring baby boomers. Producing more working-age adults takes at least 16 years and 9 months, and the US birthrate has been below the stable replacement level of 2.1 for most of the last 50 years. If the US wants to sustain long-term population growth, and consequently, workforce expansion, it must either depend on immigration or find ways to boost the birth rate.

Implementing a policy permitting increased immigration could boost the size of the workforce in America. However, this is a politically contentious issue, and the legal framework around immigration is too uncertain to make reliable long-term predictions. Overly restrictive immigration policy could lead to a labor shortage, and too permissive immigration policy could cause a labor surplus. Foreign workers constitute approximately 20% of the US workforce.

A tighter labor market has some benefits for workers

The scarcity of labor translates into more choices when seeking employment and enhances the bargaining power of job seekers. Companies will have to consider their recruitment and retention policies to ensure they have the workers required for optimal performance. US wages and salaries are remaining above inflation, showing workers ability to demand higher compensation.

A tighter labor market plus higher wages could equal higher inflation rates

However, higher wages also entail increased costs for companies, and the allocation of these costs, whether to customers or shareholders, may result in higher inflation or reduced earnings. To counter inflation, the Federal Reserve has been increasing and maintaining higher interest rates. Many are apprehensive that the tight labor market (associated with demand-pull inflation) and ongoing post-COVID supply chain challenges (linked to cost-push inflation) could make achieving the long-term target of 2% inflation more challenging.

In Q3 2023 we observed inflation rates increasing from just below 3% in June to 3.7% in September. Many consider unemployment and inflation to have an inverse relationship. A tighter labor market may necessitate the Federal Reserve to persist with a more extended and aggressive tightening policy to manage inflation. If the Federal Reserve becomes overly aggressive in its tightening efforts, the concerns that led many to anticipate a 2023 recession could materialize.

All of this hinges on the tight labor market persisting. Technological advancements have the potential to enhance productivity to a level where a smaller workforce can achieve more and sustain economic growth. Modifications in immigration policy could either introduce a new source of workers or further reduce the size of the workforce.

In the long run, successful companies will adapt to the new environment and thrive. A diversified portfolio will continue to capture the growth of the companies that excel. We encourage investors to be prepared for a myriad of reasons to be nervous, and understand given time the market will figure things out and continue to grow.

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There is good news for retirement accounts! The IRS has increased the contribution limits for the upcoming year. As you can see below, there are many notable changes that will allow investors to save more money. One important update for 2024 is that 401(k) elective deferrals increased from $22,500 to $23,000. That’s not all! Please see below for the applicable updates for the coming year:

How do these changes impact your savings in the upcoming year? Are there any changes you should be making? Use this link to schedule a time to meet one-on-one with our team. We look forward to working with you in 2024!

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In today's challenging real estate market, prospective homebuyers face stiff competition and rising costs. However, there are creative ways to navigate these hurdles and secure your dream home, second home, or investment property. Here are nine strategies to consider, that can make a significant difference in your home-buying journey:

1. Seller Concessions

Don't hesitate to ask sellers for concessions to help cover your closing costs and escrow reserves. This can ease your financial burden during the transaction.

2. Borrow From Equity

If you own a home, consider tapping into its equity to fund your down payment and closing costs. Options like refinancing or taking out a home equity loan can provide the necessary funds.

3. Escalation Clauses

Work closely with your realtor to include an escalation clause in your offer. This can help your bid stand out in multiple offer situations by automatically increasing your offer amount to surpass competing offers.

4. Buying Points

Discuss the possibility of buying points with your lender. This upfront investment can reduce your interest rate and lower your monthly principal and interest payments over the life of your mortgage.

5. Rent-Back Options

Negotiate a rent-back option with the seller. This arrangement allows you to stay in your current residence for a period after closing, giving you more time to move.

6. 401k Loans

Consider taking out a loan against your 401k for your down payment and closing costs. Be sure to understand the terms and implications before proceeding.

7. Low-Down Payment Programs

First-time homebuyers should explore no-down payment and low-down payment programs. Many government-backed loans and assistance programs can help reduce your upfront costs.

8. Credit Union Referrals

Reach out to your credit union for real estate broker referrals. Working with an experienced and trustworthy real estate agent can be invaluable in navigating a competitive market.

9. Gift Funds or Equity

Explore the possibility of using gift funds or gift equity from family members to cover your down payment. Ensure you meet the lender's requirements for documenting these funds.

Be creative and resourceful

In conclusion, purchasing a home in a challenging market requires creativity and strategic thinking. By leveraging these approaches, you can enhance your chances of securing your purchase while managing the financial aspects of the transaction. Stay informed, work with experienced professionals, and be bold while exploring these options to make your home-buying journey successful.

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As a Nike Director or VP, there are many incentives for savings and investing through the Nike benefit programs. After making big decisions on your Deferred Comp, 401k deferral, and ESPP contributions, you may be left with decision fatigue when it comes to open enrollment for your health benefits.  

Don’t let decision fatigue hinder you from taking advantage of the most underrated Nike benefit: the Health Savings Account (HSA).  

Here are three reasons why you should consider implementing an HSA strategy for 2024.

1. HSA’s are the only account that is Triple Tax Advantaged

What does this mean?

• Your contributions are tax-deductible.  

• Investment growth is tax-free.

• Distributions are tax-free when used for qualified medical expenses.

That means that you never pay taxes at any point on these dollars. Think about all other Nike benefits and retirement accounts like your 401(k) and Deferred Comp plan, you only get two of these tax advantages and the IRS is getting their money at somewhere along the way.  Using this strategy, you get to eliminate the IRS from the picture.

2. The Tax-Free Growth Opportunity

The goal of this HSA strategy is to save, grow and preserve these triple tax-advantaged dollars to be used for medical expense in retirement.

To do this correctly, you should contribute the maximum amount each year without taking distributions for medical expenses.

Prioritize using cash outside of your HSA account when medical expenses are incurred.

Next, do not leave the entire account balance in cash, but utilize the investment fund options so that you can capture the tax-free growth over the long-term.

Imagine a scenario where you were on the family HSA plan and contributed $7,000 per year for 5 years. You invested these funds and let them grow for 20 years until retirement, earning an average return of 8% per year. In 20 years, your HSA balance would be $140,000 and you only contributed $35,000 to the account in the first 5 years.  With rising health care costs, these funds can be used in retirement to pay for medical expenses, including Medicare premiums at age 65.  

3. You own and control the account

Unlike Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) which are “use it or lose it” each year that you make contributions, the HSA is different because it’s an account that you own for your lifetime. You can keep the account if you change plans, retire, or leave Nike.

The contribution limits for 2024 are $4,150 for self-only coverage and $8,300 for family coverage. Those 55 and older can contribute an additional $1,000 as a catch-up contribution.  The contribution limits typically receive an inflation increase each year, so make sure you review this and stay up-to-date on the current amount.

Taxes can be one of the largest monthly expenses for many households. As a Nike Director or VP, you could be paying up to 51% in income taxes so it’s important to maximize every opportunity for tax savings.

To get the most benefit from your HSA, you need to be strategic, just as you would be when planning your Deferred Comp, 401k, and ESPP contributions. HSA’s are high deductible plans and if you anticipate substantial medical expenses, the HSA could cost you more than the lower deductible health plan options in 2024. This highlights why it’s important to evaluate the HSA as part of your comprehensive financial plan.

If you have questions about whether switching to the HSA is the right choice for you, please contact our team at nike@humaninvesting.com.

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A much needed update for families

The Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) Simplification Act of 2021 was passed by Congress for many reasons. For starters, the calculation was originally defined over four decades ago in 1972 and is in some need of updating. According to the National College Attainment Network (NCAN), only 61% of seniors applied for aid in 2017 and 54% in 2021.

Some consider COVID to be the main culprit for this sudden drop, but the complexity of the form is the other main issue. Currently, students are required to answer 100+ questions depending on their family's income level. As of now the new FAFSA form changes are set to be released in December 2023 and students and parents alike need to be aware of the specific aspects that will apply in the 2024-2025 academic year that may impact aid eligibility depending on their family situation.

What’s changing and why it matters

1. EFC (Expected Family Contribution) replaced with Student Aid Index (SAI)

Short answer: Fairer access to funds for lower-income households.

One of the more obvious changes was renaming the EFC to the SAI. The goal was to not only reduce the confusion around the actual costs of college and what families are responsible for paying but also ensure access to Federal Student Aid programs including Direct Student Loans, Parent PLUS Loans, Work-Study programs, and even Pell Grants for low-income households. This number can be negative with maximum Pell Grants awards giving a student up to -$1,500 in money back. Time will tell but the largest impact will fall on middle to upper income families who will no longer be able to divide the number of college students in the household that are currently in college. For example, a family that could pay $40k/year could split the aid evenly between the number of students in college at the time. They no longer have this luxury and will see a reduction in aid.

2. Custodial parent status changes

Short answer: For non-married couples, the parent who ultimately claims the child as their dependent on their tax return will submit the FAFSA.

Currently, the FAFSA only collects income and asset data from the parent a student lives with. In cases of divorced, separated, or non-married couples who reside together starting in 2024-2025 school year, the SAI calculation factors in the parent who provides the greatest financial support. In cases of divorce and separation starting in 2023 the SAI calculation will only require the parent who provides the majority of “support” to fill out the FAFSA. One household might pay the child support but the other pays for the mortgage, groceries, and sports clubs. The implications of this decision can be significant.

3. Formula changes

Short answer: Students can qualify for more awards.

As with the SAI calculation, the number of students a family has in school is no longer a factor for Pell Grant eligibility. By completing the FAFSA, you are considered for the maximum amount of Pell grants first (based on number of people in your household) and your AGI (Adjusted Gross Income) compared to the FPL (Federal Poverty Line). If not eligible, your maximum Pell Grant amount will be subtracted by the SAI. Finally, you will still be considered for a minimum Pell Grant if no award is given. These other factors in the formula for aid are listed in no order but should be noted for your situation.

The student income protection allowance threshold was raised from $6,800 to $9,400.

• Businesses and farms that employ 100 or more employees will be considered an asset going forward

• Capital Gains from the sale of investments will be considered income on the FAFSA

• Child support received is now reported with assets NOT income

4. Student income from outside sources

Short answer: A student’s financial aid won’t be penalized for withdrawing 529 funds early.

Currently students must report gifts or distributions from a 529 owned by a non-parent (e.g. grandparents or other family members) or non-custodial parent if the student's parents are divorced. Due to the FAFSA’s prior income year rules, a student who needed access to those funds before Jan. 1 of their sophomore year of college would be penalized in the formula for the withdrawal. Now they are completely removed from the aid formula calculation.

5. New student allowances for the cost of attendance

Short answer: FAFSA will cover more day to day student expenses.

Although these are smaller changes, college students alike must not overlook these valuable new allowances that the FAFSA will allow students to claim for ancillary items. Not only is there a small allowance for personal expenses if a student works part-time but a personal computer purchase with no enrollment status requirement. You can even have an allowance for transportation between home, work, and school. More details can be found here.

Proactive financial aid resources to guide your family

For a current or future college student, utilize the free Student Aid Estimator.

If these changes make need-based options harder to attain, look for colleges that offer merit scholarships. This does not mean forgoing the FAFSA completely but intentionally seeking out Merit scholarships at specific institutions. This process, known as Early Action, is detailed in this article with a list of colleges that offer Merit Aid. We recommend starting this process early as many colleges recruit students as early as late spring of your child's junior year!

Finally, contact financial aid offices to see if they will be awarding institutional dollars based on the current formula not connected to the EFC/SAI numbers.

We can help with education planning

The FAFSA is changing for better or for worse and will affect how parents and students think about college for years to come. If it would be helpful to consult a team of credentialed advisors with expertise in college planning, schedule a call here.

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What recession?

As prognosticators assessed markets and the economy in the beginning of 2023, the expectation for many was a tumultuous year,  with a substantial likelihood of a recession. Now, nearly two-thirds of the way through the year, the S&P (Standard & Poor) 500 has surged by 18.73% through the end of August. Real GDP (Gross domestic product) has maintained steady growth, with quarterly increases of at least 2% since Q3 2022. Inflation, which began the year at a daunting 6.4%, has receded to 3.18%, still above The Fed's 2% long-term target but showing a marked improvement.

What changed given the gloomy expectations for 2023 at the start of the year? The biggest unknown was the impact of The Fed’s decision to continue raising interest rates. The expectation was that The Fed raising interest rates to cool inflation would cause an economic recession. We’ve even seen rising rates play a role in multiple banks failing earlier in 2023, but those events haven’t triggered any distress.

We’ll break down the top themes for why we’re seeing the markets and economy continue to power through.

Theme #1: Strong job market

Inflation has gone down, but GDP growth remains positive, and unemployment remains low. There are still 3 million more job openings than job seekers, and few were expecting The Fed to get this far on inflation without dipping the economy into a recession. Even experts have a difficult time accurately predicting where the markets and the economy are going.

Theme #2: ‘Soft landing’ of interest rate hikes

In contrast to the substantial interest rate hikes witnessed in 2022, the changes in 2023 have been modest. A significant contributor to the slowdown in interest rate hikes was the decline in inflation during the latter part of 2022, which has persisted into 2023. Consequently, The Fed didn’t need to enact as many rate increases, or do so as rapidly as they did in 2022.

Theme #3: Surprising growth from S&P 500 companies

The S&P 500’s rise has a couple of factors going for it. While 2022 saw a decline in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, 2023 has witnessed earnings growth, with expectations that growth will continue. Analysts are feeling increasingly optimistic that companies will find a way to bolster earnings amidst a higher interest rate environment.

The other piece of the puzzle is the exceptional performance of the largest stocks within the S&P 500 this year. The S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, meaning that each stock is weighted based on how large the company is. This means AAPL has a bigger weight than Home Depot, and AAPL being up 10% would increase the S&P 500 performance more than HD (Home Depot) being up 10%.

In 2023, returns have been concentrated in a few high-performing stocks. Put differently, only 28% of stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index. This highlights the dominance of a handful of top performers in 2023. It’s worth noting 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 have achieved positive returns for the year, indicating favorable performance across the stock market.

Source: Data for this paragraph is based on using IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) holdings. Positions were all verified to be held 12/30/2022 and 8/24/2023 to ensure consistency of constituents. Average returns assumes equal weighting of the positions. Top 10 holdings are based on 8/24/2023 weighting: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, GOOG, META, BRK.B, TSLA, UNH. Jan-Aug performance data courtesy of YCharts as of 8/31/2023 market close.

Theme #4: Mid and small sized companies are not far behind

Many talk about the S&P 500 as though it represents the entire stock market. However the S&P 500 represents the largest companies in the US (typically $14.5 billion and greater), leaving out companies considered mid-sized and small.  The mid and small parts of the US markets have been lagging, still positive returns but not as high.

Source: All data courtesy of YCharts. Assumes S&P 500 for US Large, S&P 400 for Mid, S&P 600 for Small, and S&P 1500 for Total Market (blend for all). Uses Value & Growth versions of benchmarks respectively.

Predicting short-term MARKET outcomes continues to be difficult

Short-term value oriented investors may be frustrated to see their performance lagging the broad market. Alternatively, longer-term investors recall seeing a significant benefit in 2022 by experiencing less negative returns than the broad market or growth stocks. You are still positive from the start of 2022 to the end of August 2023. Growth and blend investors are still waiting to recover from the downturn. Trying to time when value or growth will outperform is not recommended. Find an investment style that suits your risk tolerance and financial plan, and be prepared to stick with it for the long haul despite periods of under or over performance.

The year 2023 so far serves as a compelling illustration of how stocks can still generate positive returns even in the face of grim expectations. It is also a great reminder of how difficult accurately predicting the economy or the markets is. The outlook for the equities market is rarely all sunshine and rainbows. Stock market volatility means that short-term corrections are always on the table. There are and always will be valid concerns that could lead to a downturn. If you are choosing a particular tilt in your investments, be prepared to stick with it over time. Long term, equities remain the best way to grow your savings. It is valuable to remember and reflect on the times when you anticipated poor returns but were pleasantly surprised by positive performance.

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Earnings season is coming

With the recent struggles of Nike stock over the past couple of years, many Nike employees are wondering what to do with their stock. Whether it is to diversify into another investment or to fund expenses like vacation, remodels, or tuition for their kids, the current price has made those decisions more difficult. A common question we hear is “Should I sell my NKE now or wait?”

NKE has recently experienced declines. From Sep 2022 to August 2023, NKE fell -4.49% while the S&P 500 has risen 15.58%. Nike had a great run of outperforming the S&P 500 for 10 out of 12 years prior to 2021 but has been on a losing streak since.

Is Nike poised to make a comeback? Predicting the future of any stock, or the market overall, is a difficult task. Nike is the industry leader in athletic apparel, particularly in footwear. If Nike can maintain their brand and industry leadership, they are poised to be successful. Achieving outperformance relative to the S&P 500 is not guaranteed.

Let’s look at a few different ways to approach valuing a stock to get a sense of if NKE appears over or undervalued.

🍰 Price / Earnings (P/E) ratio - how much are you paying for each dollar of earnings:

• Pros: Earnings are the profits of the company, and those profits are ultimately what is available for shareholders as dividends

• Cons: Easily manipulated or adjusted by many line items on the income statement, can vary greatly year to year

• Current P/E: 29.84

• 3 year median P/E: 36.26

• Implied Valuation based on $3.23 Earnings Per Share = $117.12

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

💰 Price / Sales (P/S) ratio – how much are you paying for each dollar of revenue:

• Pros: Less subject to manipulation or fluctuation

• Cons: Doesn’t consider efficiency (i.e. costs necessary to generate the revenues)

• Current P/S: 2.95

• 3 year median P/S: 4.62

• Implied Valued based on $32.63 revenue per share = $150.70

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🔄 Price / Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio - How much are you paying for each dollar of operating cash:

• Pros: Shows cash actually available to investors for dividends or stock buybacks, ignores non-cash expenses (i.e. depreciation)

• Cons: Still subject to manipulation based on accounting practices, can vary greatly year to year

• Currentl P/FCF: 31.06

• 3 year median P/FCF: 43.98

• Implied value based on $3.10 free cash flow per share = $136.50

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🥣 Average of all ratios:

• Take the average of the implied values for P/E, P/S, and P/FCF

• Implied Value = $134.77

• Verdict: Undervalued, hold your NKE for now

🚀 Price / Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio = P/E ratio / Earning Growth – measure P/E in context of company’s growth rate

• PEG < 1 implies undervalued, PEG > 1 implies overvalued.

• Currently: 29.89 / -16.46 = -1.81

• Decrease in EPS results in negative value.

• Forward 1 year: 1.775

• Verdict: Overvalued (sell your NKE now).

Based on historical averages, NKE currently appears undervalued

You can also take different time periods for the median of these valuations, to see what Nike’s valuation has been like over a longer period of time.

Note: All data courtesy of YCharts as of:  9/15/2023

While Nike may appear severely undervalued on a 3-year basis, the difference is smaller over 5-year and 10-year medians. If you’re thinking about selling, these valuations may give you some guideline thresholds to re-evaluate at.

Based on historical averages for NKE, the stock currently appears undervalued. The decline in NKE’s price in recent years is a big reason for that. Whether the decline will continue, or NKE will return to its historical valuation norms nobody knows. Looking at the basic fundamentals, NKE appears healthy overall. 

• Earnings & revenue have continued to grow.

• NKE has consistently sold its products above the cost of those goods.

• NKE can cover both its current and longer-term debt needs based on existing cash and future expected earnings.

• NKE has not missed a dividend in the past 10 years.

These metrics are by no means the only way to approach whether now is a good time to sell your NKE stock. Other factors to consider:

• The amount of time you think you will work at Nike.

• How much of your Net Worth is tied to NKE?

• When do your Stock Options expire (if applicable)?

• Your comfort level with the ups and downs over time.

• Do you have any major expenses coming up? i.e. house purchase, funding college, etc.

We’re here to help

Beyond these factors and metrics, it is important to integrate your Nike stock decisions within the context of a comprehensive financial plan. If you have questions or would like to discuss whether to hold or sell your NKE stock, please reach out to us at nike@humaninvesting.com.

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The window is open from August 8-25, 2023

It’s that time of year again where Nike leaders will need to make their annual Nike Stock Choice and select between 100% Stock Options, 100% RSUs or 50/50. 

When comparing Nike Stock Options and Nike RSUs, RSUs are the safer option.  RSUs offer a more secure value and a more moderate level of upside and downside.  Stock Options are more volatile but can also provide significantly more upside over time.

At first glance the decision can feel simple since there are only 3 roads to take, and when in doubt picking the middle road of 50/50 is the easy compromise.  While this can be the right selection for many individuals, it is not always the optimal choice.   While working alongside Nike leaders over many years, we have found that there are 11 crucial questions to answer and consider so that you arrive at that optimal selection for you.

Timing questions: Is it a sprint or a marathon?

Understanding your timeline is one of the most important factors in your choice.  Stock Options do not have any value until the stock price increases, but they do grow at a faster pace than RSUs.  So given enough time, Stock Options can surpass RSUs in value.  This is why timing considerations can be crucial to your decision and you should consider questions like:    

1. What is the purpose of Nike stock for you and your family? 

Does it contribute to longer-term goals like retirement, building wealth, and creating a legacy? Stock Options are more appropriate here. Or is it for shorter-term needs like a second home, more vacations, or education for your kids?  RSUs typically make more sense for these scenarios.

2. How much longer do you think you will work at Nike?

To the best of your ability, you should consider how long you think you will remain at Nike.  Your timeline could be short if you are seriously considering offers from recruiters or think your position could be eliminated.  In those types of considerations, RSUs could make more sense.  Conversely, if you plan to stay at Nike long-term and feel like your position is secure, you have a better chance to participate in the long-term growth of Nike stock.  In this case, Stock Options may be a better fit.   

3. How often do you typically sell Nike Stock to fund purchasing needs?

If you frequently sell your Nike stock grants to fund lifestyle needs, you likely need a more consistent funding source like RSUs since there is not adequate time for the stock to grow and realize the value.  

Behavioral questions: It goes beyond the numbers

As human beings, behavioral and emotional factors often affect our financial decisions.  These types of questions include:

4. What did you select last year, and do you feel like that was a good decision? 

Do you have buyer’s remorse, or do you feel good about that decision regardless of which selection is better at this point-in-time?  It is important to remember that the Stock Choice selection is a long-term decision that should not be overly influenced by recent, short-term results.

5. How much regret would you have if your peers made a more financially successful choice? 

If your peers are all celebrating the success of their selection and yours is different, how much would this affect you?  Everyone has a different level of response in these situations and setting yourself up well to be at peace with your decisions is important to your well-being.

6. How do you currently feel about the long-term growth potential of Nike stock?

Your long-term feelings toward Nike stock potential should be considered since it will better match your expectations and satisfaction regardless of what actually happens with stock performance.    

Risk questions: How much turbulence are you okay with?

7. If stock price dropped by 20%, how would you feel?

It is normal for any stock, including Nike, to experience ups and downs and a 20% drop at some point should be expected.  During these moments, would you be concerned to the point of wanting to sell immediately, not concerned at all, or a little concerned?  If this type of drop would be too difficult to stomach, you may want to lean towards RSUs.  If it is not a concern at all, you may be well-suited for Stock Options.

8. How do you feel about your total exposure to Nike stock?

Does having the bulk of your financial assets tied up in Nike already cause you concern and anxiety, or are you hoping to build up more Nike holdings?  If you are already concerned about your exposure, you will likely be diversifying out of Nike stock.  In this case, it could make more sense to lean towards RSUs.

Quantitative questions: The numbers do matter

9. How is the price of Nike stock valued currently based on its earnings and other factors? 

Is it overvalued or undervalued?  You may want to examine the metrics to see how it currently stacks compared to its historical valuation.  If it is undervalued that could make you lean more towards Stock Options, or if it is overvalued it could make sense to lean more RSUs.

10. What is this year’s Stock Option Ratio?

Each year there is a calculation of how many Stock Options you will receive if you make that choice.  It is a ratio based on the value of the RSU choice.  For the first 4 years, it was a 5:1 ratio (5 stock options for 1 RSU).  Last year (2022) it shifted to a 4:1 ratio.  We cannot say for sure the reason for this shift, but it would be reasonable to assume it was affected by interest rate changes and stock market volatility as those factors can change the valuation of a stock option.

The 4:1 ratio for Stock Options means that you would receive less Stocks Options and Nike stock price would require additional growth to become more valuable than RSUs.  A lower ratio could mean that you need more time for Stock Options to grow to have a chance to exceed the value of RSUs. 

The overriding ‘special’ question

11. Do you qualify for the Stock Option Special Retirement Vesting?

If you are age 55+ and have worked for Nike for at least 5 years, you qualify for the Special Retirement Vesting of any Stock Options. This is the most important factor in the entire equation to consider. 

When you terminate from employment at Nike, you will lose any unvested RSUs and Stock Options.  Additionally, any unvested Stock Options must be exercised within 90 days unless you qualify for the Special Retirement Vesting.  This Special vesting will allow you to keep your unvested Stock Options (held for at least one year).  These will continue to vest over the next 4 years or vest immediately if you are Age 60+.  You will also have more time to exercise your Stock Options instead of being forced to do so within 90 days after termination.    

Since this special vesting is so valuable, anyone that qualifies or will be qualifying for this vesting soon, should strongly consider Stock Options as part of their decision. 

Do you want help putting it all together?

As you can gather from the 11 questions above, there are many different factors that should be considered.  Determining which ones are the most important can be challenging. 

Based on your answers to these questions, you may already feel confident and comfortable with one of the three options.

For those who are still unsure or want to obtain detailed information while deliberating, our team at Human Investing created our own, proprietary scoring tool.  The scoring tool takes the answers to these questions, assigns different weights depending on the importance of each question, and generates a unique score report.    

GET YOUR OWN COMPLEMENTARY SCORE

If you or anyone you know is interested in receiving their own Stock Choice score sign up below. 

Get your score

Lastly, we believe it is important to consider how your Nike stock compensation fits within your overall financial situation.  The questions above and the scoring tool can be helpful, but this Stock Choice decision is best done in coordination with a personalized financial plan.

If you have questions or want to learn more about the Stock Choice, Stock Options or RSUs, please feel free to contact us at nike@humaninvesting.com

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Corporate retirement plans (401(k), 403(b), 401(a), 457(b), etc.) made up a total of $9.3 Trillion as of December 31, 2022. It goes without saying that these types of accounts make up a significant portion of how Americans save for retirement. In this series we want to help equip and educate investors on how to successfully navigate selecting their investments, sticking to a game plan, and ultimately growing their account in the most efficient way possible.

What matters the most

Asset Allocation

Luckily, studies have been done and papers have been written about the number one determinant of portfolio success. As the pie chart below shows, allocating funds appropriately across asset classes is BY FAR the number one factor that determines portfolio success.

Put differently, ensuring that an investor selects a fund (or funds) that diversifies their investments will outperform the investor who spends time on trying to time the market or ensure that the security they selected is superior to other investments in the same peer group. This can be accomplished using a Target Date Fund, Target Risk Fund, Model Portfolio, or by creating a custom asset allocation.

Expense Ratio (or Fund Cost)

The next variable that we would say matters most is ensuring that the fund or funds you select has a low expense ratio. What’s low? In 2022, the average expense ratio for a index fund was 0.05%. In our opinion, if the index fund you select has an expense ratio of less than 0.15% we think you are checking the box on selecting a low-cost option.

What matters less

Historical Performance

Talking about historical performance is no easy task. The point here is that when you are on your retirement plan website and looking to learn about the investment options, the majority of the information is about the performance of the funds. And while that information might stand out the most, it’s actually not the most helpful. We think about fund performance track records in this framework:

1. Asset class performance is more important than actual fund performance. More specifically, owning the Large Cap asset class is more important than trying to select a specific large cap manager.

2. So much can go into why a specific fund performed well or did not perform well over the last 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, or 10 year performance period. Only looking at these variables has not been a good indicator of if a fund is going to perform well on a go forward basis. A majority of the top-half performing funds fall out of the top half after 5 years.

3. Our recommendation, if you are going to look at funds in a more in depth way look at variables like risk-adjusted return or the specific track record of the management team. Another option is to simply select a low-cost index fund. 

A visual guide on what to look for

We created this table to help provide a road map for selecting investments. This sample fund menu contains; investment options, historical performance, cost, and if the fund should be used on a stand-alone basis (provides ample asset allocation) or should be held alongside other investment options.

What to talk about your company’s retirement plan?

Schedule time to meet with an advisor below or e-mail Andrew at andrew@humaninvesting.com.

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A growing complexity

As a Nike leader, you are provided a comprehensive range of benefits that help achieve financial and retirement goals. The downside is that these benefits often create confusing tax implications. Multiple measures over the last few years have passed to increase taxes on high-income earners, including the Metro and Multnomah County taxes. These tax measures in addition to regular Federal and Oregon taxes are becoming an increasing burden for Nike executives. 

A clear understanding of the tax implications with these benefits is crucial. Employing appropriate strategies can both reduce your tax burden and also prevent any surprises during tax season in April.

Let’s examine the three biggest reasons you could get hit with a tax bill and review a recommended solution.

The 3 leading causes to tax surprises

1. Wrong tax withholding on supplemental pay

Many compensation sources at Nike beyond salary (such as PSP, LTIP/PSU vests, RSU vests, and stock option exercises) are taxed as “supplemental pay,” which come with a set percentage of tax withholding (22% Federal + 8% Oregon) regardless of your tax bracket or tax withholding elections on your salary. The reality is most Nike executives are in a much higher income tax bracket, sometimes as much as 17% higher than the amount withheld. This discrepancy leaves a significant gap in the amount taxes that should have been withheld versus the actual amount.

For example, Kate Executive has $100K of RSUs that vested on September 1st. With all her income sources (salary, PSP, LTIP/PSU, RSUs) her taxable income is $700K. The taxes automatically withheld on the $100K RSU vests would be about $30K (22% Federal + 8% State).  However, based on her tax bracket, Kate will owe another $17,000 on that RSU vest.

2. No tax withholding for Multnomah County’s “Preschool for All” tax

For those who live in Multnomah County, you are likely subject to the “Preschool for All” tax that started in 2021. Unfortunately, Nike does not withhold taxes from payroll to cover this tax, so you will be responsible to fully cover this on your own. Multnomah County expects these payments to be received quarterly to avoid interest and penalties.

The Preschool for All tax is 1.5% on taxable income over $125,000 for individuals and $200,000 for joint filers, with an additional 1.5% on taxable income over $250,000 for individuals and $400,000 for joint filers. The rate will increase by 0.8% in 2026.

3. No coordination of Portland Metro tax payments for 2 working spouses

Since Nike headquarters is located within the Portland Metro, they do withhold taxes for the Metro Supportive Housing tax (a.k.a. Homeless tax) that also started in 2021. The Metro Supportive Housing Tax is a 1% tax that is applied on income over $125,000 single filer or $200,000 joint filer. 

A common issue arises when you have two working spouses at different companies, since the income threshold for this tax is based on household income and the two different employers obviously do not communicate with each other.   

For example, once a Nike executive’s income reaches $200K, Nike will start to withhold the Metro tax on any income above that amount. However, the other spouse’s employer does not know about the income at Nike and assumes that the spouse’s income is the household income. So, if that spouse earns $90K, no Metro tax is withheld on that amount even though all of it is subject to the Metro tax.

The 3 tax payment issues identified above often lead to a frustrating situation, where you either end up with a significant tax bill in April or you have been paying in the wrong quarterly estimated tax payment amounts given to you by your CPA.

Our recommended solution: The pay as you receive strategy

For many Nike executives, setting aside additional tax payments into your monthly household cash flow can become stressful, since the amounts can be so inconsistent.   

The “Pay as You Receive” strategy is calculating the estimated amount of taxes due from each type of “Bonus Compensation” as you receive it and making those tax payments at that time, while you have the funds to do it. This will leave your monthly cash flow separate and unaffected.

If this sounds like a lot of work, you can make it simpler by applying this method during 2 key time periods. 

• Time Period #1: August – PSP, LTIP/PSU bonus’

• Time Period #2: Early September: September 1st RSU vests

A more thorough approach is the also include any February retention RSU vests and stock option exercises as they occur.

These supplemental estimated tax payments, when combined with the withholding, should be equal to your anticipated tax bracket for the calendar year. This approach helps ensure that your total payment to the IRS, Oregon, Multnomah County, and Metro aligns with your tax obligations.

Additional strategies for minimizing your tax liabilities

If you’re looking for more tax savings or want to use your stock benefits to take care of tax payments, we highly recommend proactive tax planning. This involves looking beyond the past year and anticipating opportunities to reduce taxes in the future.

Proactive tax planning common solutions include:

1. Maxing out your Nike 401(k) with pre-tax contributions

This is a simple strategy, yet it is often missed.  With the maximum contribution amount increasing periodically with inflation and with opportunities for additional catch-up contributions at age 50, forgetting to review your contribution percentage each year is common.  We recommend reviewing your 401k contribution amount after your PSP bonus is paid, since it is a variable amount that is part of the equation.

2. Selling the right type of Nike stock

If you ever need funds from Nike stock, find the most optimal type of Nike stock to sell to minimize your taxes. Typically, RSUs are preferred over ESPP from a tax standpoint, but this can depend on when it was purchased/vested, how long it has been held, and what the stock price is at the time.

3. Utilizing the Nike deferred compensation plan to defer your taxable income to a later date 

Nike’s deferred compensation plan is generally the most powerful tax savings tool available for Nike leaders.  There are specific IRS rules and many important considerations to plan around when using this strategy.  To learn more click here.

4. Charitable giving

Most people assume that all donations to charities are tax-deductible.  They can be tax-deductible but are not always, depending on your individual tax situation. To receive a charitable deduction, you need to exceed a certain threshold each year, and it may make sense to “bunch” donations (make multiple years-worth of contributions in a year) to cross that threshold and capture tax benefits. Coordinating your charitable strategy with the Nike charitable match can be an effective way to lower your taxes and benefit your desired charities at the same time. To find out more click here.

5. Residence planning

If you currently live in Multnomah County, you might consider moving to another county, such as Clackamas or Washington Counties, to avoid the Preschool for All tax. This solution should consider the estimated tax savings compared to the cost of selling your home, the tax implications of selling your home, the purchase price of a new home, and the difference in a new mortgage payment (especially because mortgage rates have increased significantly).

6. Planning around the Oregon state kicker

Oregon law has a provision known as the “kicker” credit. This is a surplus credit that is returned to you on your tax return when tax revenue is larger than predicted.  By accounting for this, you can strategically recognize more income in “kicker” qualifying years so that your potential kicker credit is increased.  The last kicker payment was 17.34% of the Oregon taxes you paid in 2020 and the next one is estimated to be even larger. 

Bring in experienced experts

By implementing a proactive forward-looking tax strategy and payment plan, Nike leaders have a significant opportunity to improve their financial situation and relieve stress related to taxes. It is important to note that any tax payment and mitigation strategies should be part of a comprehensive financial plan that is tailored to your specific financial situation.

If you have questions about how to set up a proactive forward-looking tax strategy, please contact our team to learn more.

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