Two ways to approach low-risk investments

When considering safe investment options, two popular choices that often come to mind are FDIC-insured CDs (Certificates of Deposit) and US Treasuries. While both offer relatively low-risk investment opportunities, there are some critical differences between the two that investors should be aware of.

FDIC-insured CDs are certificates issued by banks and credit unions that offer a guaranteed rate of return for a specified period. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insures CDs up to $250,000 per depositor per bank, protecting against bank failure. In contrast, US Treasuries are debt securities issued by the US government to finance its operations. They are generally considered one of the safest investments available because the full faith and credit of the US government back them.

One key difference between the two is their liquidity. CDs have fixed terms ranging from a few months to several years, and if you need to withdraw funds before the maturity date, you may be subject to penalties. On the other hand, US Treasuries can be bought and sold in the secondary market and can be liquidated easily, making them a more flexible option.

Another difference is the level of risk. While both investments are considered safe, FDIC-insured CDs carry some risk due to the possibility of bank failure. While the FDIC provides insurance protection, there is always a small chance that a bank may fail, and investors may not receive their full investment amount. On the other hand, US Treasuries are backed by the US government and are considered virtually risk-free.

When it comes to returns, FDIC-insured CDs offer fixed interest rates that are lower than the returns available through US Treasuries. US Treasuries offer a range of maturities and yields determined by market demand, with longer-term securities offering higher yields.

In terms of taxes, both FDIC-insured CDs and US Treasuries are subject to federal income tax, but US Treasuries are exempt from state and local taxes. Additionally, you may be subject to capital gains tax if you sell US Treasuries for more than their purchase price.

Risks of Return on Investment: CDs

It's important to note that the FDIC receives no funding from taxpayers. Instead, it is funded by insurance premiums paid by banks and thrift institutions participating in the program. These premiums are based on the number of insured deposits each institution holds and the risk they pose to the insurance fund. In case of bank failure, the FDIC uses these funds to reimburse depositors for their insured deposits up to the $250,000 limit. This funding system helps ensure the banking system's stability and integrity while protecting depositors from loss.

While the FDIC insurance pool can become insolvent, it is highly unlikely. The FDIC has many safeguards to prevent insolvency, and its record of accomplishment in managing bank failures has been quite successful.

Firstly, as mentioned earlier, the FDIC collects insurance premiums from participating banks and thrift institutions. These premiums are based on the number of insured deposits each institution holds and the risk they pose to the insurance fund. The FDIC also has the authority to increase premiums to maintain the insurance fund's solvency.

Secondly, the FDIC has the ability to sell the assets and liabilities of a failed bank to another institution, thereby minimizing the cost of the failure of the insurance fund. This process, known as a purchase and assumption transaction, allows the acquiring institution to take over the failed bank’s deposits and assume its liabilities. At the same time, the FDIC pays out the insured deposits.

Finally, if the insurance fund were to become insolvent, the FDIC would have access to a line of credit with the US Treasury to cover any losses. The FDIC can also assess additional premiums on insured institutions to replenish the insurance fund.

It is worth noting that while the FDIC has never become insolvent since its creation in 1933, it has come close to doing so during times of economic stress, such as the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s. However, the FDIC's ability to manage these crises effectively and prevent widespread bank failures has helped to maintain public confidence in the banking system and the FDIC insurance program.

Risk of Return on Investment: Treasuries

If the United States were to become insolvent, it could have profound implications for US Treasuries, as the full faith and credit of the US government backs them. The creditworthiness of the US government is a key factor in determining the value of US Treasuries. Default or insolvency could significantly decrease demand for US Treasuries, resulting in a sharp rise in interest rates.

In addition, if the US were to become insolvent, it could lead to a global financial crisis, as domestic and foreign investors widely hold US Treasuries. A default could lead to a loss of confidence in the US government's ability to manage its finances, which could cause investors to sell off their US Treasury holdings, leading to a domino effect throughout the financial system.

However, it is important to note that the likelihood of the US becoming insolvent is extremely low because the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, and the US government can print its currency. This gives the government greater flexibility to manage its debt than other countries.

Furthermore, the US has a long history of managing its debt and has never defaulted on its sovereign debt. Even during times of economic stress, such as the Great Recession of 2008, the US government has been able to maintain its creditworthiness and continue to issue debt.

Overall, while there are risks associated with US Treasuries in the event of a US government insolvency, the likelihood of this scenario occurring is considered low. US Treasuries are still widely regarded as one of the safest investments in the world.

Implications of Printing Currency: A Double-edged Sword

The implications of the US printing more currency are complex and depend on a range of factors, including the current state of the economy, inflation rates, and global economic conditions.

On the one hand, increasing the money supply can help stimulate economic growth by making more money available for borrowing and spending. This can lead to increased investment and consumption, driving economic activity and creating jobs.

However, printing too much money can also lead to inflation, as the increased money supply can cause prices to rise. Inflation can erode the currency’s purchasing power and decrease consumer confidence and economic stability.

Furthermore, printing more currency can also lead to a depreciation of the currency's value relative to other currencies. This can negatively affect international trade, as a weaker currency can make imports more expensive and exports cheaper, potentially leading to a trade deficit.

Overall, the decision to print more currency should be carefully considered, considering a range of economic factors. While increasing the money supply can help stimulate economic growth, it is essential to strike a balance between promoting growth and maintaining economic stability and confidence in the currency.

What’s Your Timetable?

In conclusion, both FDIC-insured CDs and US Treasuries offer low-risk investment opportunities, but there are some key differences between the two that investors should consider. While CDs offer fixed returns and are insured by the FDIC, they are less liquid and carry some risk due to the possibility of bank failure. US Treasuries, on the other hand, offer higher returns, are virtually risk-free, and are more liquid. Ultimately, the choice between the two will depend on an investor's financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.

Authors Note: This article was written using prompts in ChatGPT. (2023, May 8). The author has independently verified the accuracy of the responses. The author edited and formatted responses from the prompts for clarity.

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What is the yield curve?

The yield curve refers to the current yields of US treasury bonds based upon time until maturity. It’s frequently depicted as a graph to help summarize the data. Typically, a yield curve is upward sloping. Short-term (ST) rates are lower, and long-term (LT) rates are higher.

Wall Street Journal, Bonds & Rates: Yield Curve, April 25, 2023

Reading the yield curve:

• A “steeper” or “steepening” of the yield curve means short-term (ST) rates are lower, and long-term (LT) rates are higher, resulting in a steeper line when comparing

• A “flatter” or “flattening” of the yield curve is when ST rates and LT rates are equivalent, or are getting closer to parity

• An “inverted” yield curve is when ST rates are higher than LT rates, like the current line in the snapshot above.

What determines the yield curve?

All rates on the yield curve are determined by the market. The Fed only controls the federal funds rate, which is only the rate banks lend to each other overnight. Because the market determines the shape of the yield curve, many look to the yield curve as a summary of overall investor sentiment to draw conclusions about expectations for the future. Some important market factors that influence the yield curve include:

• Liquidity (time horizon): The more time until a bond matures, the longer you have your money tied up. As a result, a longer time to maturity (and lower liquidity) bond tends to have a higher yield. This contributes to an upward sloping yield curve.

• Growth expectations: If there are higher growth expectations, you tend to see a steeper yield curve. This is because higher growth tends to lead to higher inflation, and so rates must be higher to achieve positive real returns.

• Demand: As more investors demand a bond, the price goes up. As bond prices go up, yields go down.

Why is the yield curve inverted, and why does that indicate a recession?

The yield curve is inverted because ST rates are higher than LT rates. This is largely due to The Fed raising interest rates to lower inflation. The Fed appears determined to reign in inflation, and has raised ST interest rates to slow down the economy enough to reduce inflation. This is putting upward pressure on ST rates. Many expect this approach to cause a recession, which would lower growth expectations, reducing LT interest rates. The result is the inverted yield curve we see today.

Why does this inversion indicate a recession?

In theory, the market is pricing treasuries so the returns over a given time period are the same, regardless of what you buy today. Let’s use an example to illustrate this.

Say you want to invest $10,000 in treasuries for 2 years, you can make two choices:

1. Choice #1: Buy a single 2 year treasury

   • Currently a ~4.2% yield, so you earn roughly 4.2% for 2 years.

2. Choice #2: Buy a 1 year treasury today, then a new 1 year treasury in 1 year:

   • Currently a ~4.7% yield, so you earn roughly 4.7% for 1 year.

   • After the first year, your treasury will mature, and you will have to purchase a new treasury at whatever the current rates are. The yield curve today is predicting 1 year rates will be at 3.7% in the following year.

   • Your overall return after averaging those rates for each year is 4.2% — the same as buying a 2 year treasury initially!

A lower rate in the future indicates lower growth expectations at that time. Growth expectations being lower (or negative) does not bode well for the health of the economy. The inverted yield curve also has a solid record of predicting recessions, but that doesn’t mean it’s perfect or guaranteed. The yield curve reflects the average sentiment of the markets, which indicates what expectations are. Sometimes expectations create a self-fulfilling prophecy situation, and sometimes expectations are flat out incorrect because of an unexpected shock, like the COVID-19 pandemic.

What does this mean for me and my portfolio?

Ultimately your portfolio should be allocated for the long term, and that should be positioned accordingly. While the inverted yield curve has been a strong predictor of recessions, the timing of that prediction and how significant it’s going to be are not consistent enough to provide an easy 5 step solution for everyone.

If you are positioned towards the more aggressive end of what you are comfortable with, consider reducing risk with some volatility expected on the horizon. Understand that regardless of the yield curve today, the long run expectation is growth and positive returns for the economy and equity markets.

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The cost of education, especially 4-year accredited university programs, continues to rise. The graphic below shows the average annual cost of college nationwide from 1980-2021 far outpacing the maximum Federal Pell Grants offered over the same time period. 

If there is an ability to pre-fund college, in whole or part, it will have lasting financial implications. Funding college early at the birth of a child or grandchild to a college savings account could reduce the future funding liability by six figures. 

In this article, we will discuss some ways you can start saving for your child’s education.

The most popular option, the 529 Savings Plan

A 529 College Savings Plan is one of the most popular options when saving for college. Not only does the money you contribute to a 529 plan grow tax-free but any distributions used for qualifying education expenses (tuition, room & board, books, computer, etc.), are tax-free as well. In the past, qualified expenses were limited to just tuition and boarding but recently the government has expanded this list. Beneficiaries of a 529 plan can also use the money to pay for trade school, community college, or even a 3-month certificate program.  

Oregon has a state-sponsored 529 Plan that allows residents to receive tax benefits for contributions they make to a plan in the state. This gives you a triple-tax benefit. Contributions to fund the account have a tax benefit, growth is tax-free, and qualified expenses are tax-free. There are also private plans that qualify under Oregon-state law. As of 2023, contributors can receive up to $300 in tax credits depending on their filing status and household income. As of 2023, families can contribute up to $17,000 annually in a 529 account. Anything after that is considered a “taxable gift” and subject to gift tax laws.  

Another feature about 529s starting in 2024 and beyond is that any leftover money up to a lifetime amount of $35,000 can be rolled over into the beneficiary’s Roth IRA.. For example, let’s look at two parents who invested $50,000 into a 529. Their child received a full scholarship to the college of their choice. The child ends up only spending $10,000 to cover other expenses during their time in college. That student can then roll over a lifetime amount of $35,000 into their Roth IRA account, as long as they have earned income and the 529 account has been established for 15 years.  

Coverdell ESAs act very similarly to 529 plans due to the withdrawals being tax-free for qualifying expenses. However, contributions are limited to $2,000 per child annually and are only available to families below certain income thresholds. 

Special accounts: Uniform Gifts TO Minors Acts (UGMA) or Uniform Transfers to Minors Acts (UTMA)

UGMA or UTMA accounts can help you save for college but aren’t just reserved for education. These accounts are savings accounts that are controlled by a parent or guardian, known as a “custodian.” You can gift up to $17,000 per year (as of 2023) in assets that are held in a custodial account until the child turns the age of majority (Age 18 or 21 depending on the state). In Oregon, the dependent cannot take over the account until they are 21.  

The custodian of the account can use this money only for the benefit of the minor to pay for things like food, education, and living situations. 

Pre-pay for college tuition and tuition discounts  

Unfortunately, in Oregon, there is no State-sponsored pre-payment plan for college tuition. There may be some private ones, but they are expensive. Some people do this in other states to pay for the full tuition during the current year rather than wait 17-18 years when prices go up even more. For your reference, here are states that offer pre-payment programs.

There is also a program known as the State and Regional College Tuition Discounts. Oregon has several schools that are members of the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.  

For more information about this make sure to research the WICHE site and Oregon’s student aid site.

Alternatives to college that can fast track career development

Despite the rising costs of college, there are other options to consider. College is not for everyone and you may decide not to send your student to college right away if you cannot afford to do so.  

Many high-paying and rewarding career paths do not involve a college degree like: 

• Computer programming and coding 

• Loan officers 

• Pilots 

• Plant operators and managers 

• Graphic designers 

• Trades like plumbers, welders, carpenters, farmers, etc. 

• Sales reps  

• Business owners and managers 

Community colleges, trade schools, and certificate programs are a fraction of the cost of a 4-year college program and in most cases pay well with little to no debt. Plus, 529 Plans cover these types of education programs too (certain restrictions may apply).  

Some 17-year-olds may not know what they want to do yet. They can work a job, apprentice under an expert, or even start their own business and find their passion before committing to a major program in college.  

If you need more advice, financial planners and advisors can assist you with planning for your student’s future. These laws vary from state to state so talking with a team of experts who are knowledgeable in this area is a wise choice.  

If you are looking to hire an advisor, please connect with us.

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A financial plan is a personalized strategy that outlines where someone’s money goes and how to finance their needs and goals. Who needs a financial plan? Everyone should have a financial plan. They do not all have to be complex. Many are simple.  

Basic financial plans may include the following tools: 

• Budgeting 

• Debt management plan 

• Retirement investment strategy 

• Tax Guidance 

Complex, or more comprehensive, financial plans can include the above but also add things like: 

• Real estate investing 

• Business advice 

• Estate Planning 

• Philanthropic pursuits  

Financial Planning is the process of a client working with a financial advisor (like a CPA or a CFP®) to help establish their financial plan. Our firm focuses on developing and implementing comprehensive financial plans for well-rounded advice and coordination with other professionals to help clients accomplish their goals per their distinct values. 

Anyone can create a financial plan

If you have a simple financial situation, you may not necessarily need a professional to help you set up a plan. We do recommend working with a financial advisor to take the complexity out and optimize it for the benefit of the investor and their family.

Here are some steps to help kickstart your financial plan.

STEP 1: Define your Goals

A financial plan is centered on your financial goals. You may categorize your goals into short-term, medium-term, and long-term periods.

Short-term goals can range from a few months to 1 year time. This could be things like going on a trip, buying a car, or paying off debt.

Mid-term goals range from 1-5 years. These goals may include paying off debt, pursuing higher education, saving up for a down payment on a house, planning a wedding, or starting a business.

Long-term goals are goals with periods from 5+ years. Usually, these goals are stretched even further from 10, 20, or 30+ years.  Here are some common long-term examples: investing in college for a dependent, retirement, or paying off your mortgage.  

STEP 2: Create a budget

A solid budget will give you an idea of your monthly cash flow. This means tracking your take-home pay and your expenses every month.

There are many ways to do this like the 50/30/20 budgeting rule, the zero-based method, or the envelop system. The key here is to see where you are overspending and see where you can save more as you work towards your goals.

STEP 3: Build an emergency fund

According to the Federal Reserve, most Americans cannot afford a $400 - $500 emergency bill. As the emergency cost increases, fewer Americans can afford it. As a general rule of thumb, a family should have three to six months of living expenses saved in an emergency fund to protect against the unexpected. We advise that people create a Starter Emergency Fund of $1,000 first.

STEP 4: Pay off consumer debt

This would include credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, and student loans . These debts can often be the most burdensome for Americans and if you find yourself struggling to make ends meet, make an effort to pay these off after you’ve completed the steps above.  

STEP 5: Invest in your retirement

A great place to start is by investing in your company’s 401(k) or 403(b) plan. If they have a match, take advantage of this. Make sure you are getting the match. 

Don’t have access to a 401(k) ? Open a Traditional or Roth Individual Retirement Account (IRA). You have 100% control over where the money goes and how it’s invested. 

Open a Health Savings Account (HSA) for future medical expenses. Contributions, investment growth, and withdrawals are all tax-free (assuming the withdrawals are used for eligible medical expenses). 

Max out contributions to all your accounts if you can. You can have a 401(k) ,IRA, and HSA open at the same time. In 2023, IRA contributions are capped at $6,500.  

If this seems like a lot to handle, it can be. We can assure you, It’s worth the work and the extra effort to have a financial advisor help you and your family throughly address these topics. These are some basic steps to help you get started today. If your life grows more complex, it will be important to monitor your plan on a more consistent basis.

Whom should I hire if I need help with my financial plan?

It is wise to seek counsel from experts in any area of life. Financial advisors can help you choose investments that align with your goals, give you a strategy to pay off debt, lower your tax burden, and so much more. 

Here at Human Investing, we are fiduciaries which means we are legally bound to always act in our client’s best interest. That means no commissions or selling pressure. Professor Kent Smetters of the Wharton School of Business notes fewer than 2% of all financial advisors are fiduciaries.  

Fee structures and fiduciary standards

Before you hire a financial advisor, make sure to ask for their fee structure.

Some advisors charge hourly or a flat rate depending on the service. Many advisors will charge a percentage of all of your assets under management (AUM) and others still will get paid a commission depending on the product you purchase from them. You will want to ensure that the firm you choose to go with is working in your best interest and you are getting the most out of what you are paying them for.  

Financial planners and advisors that abide by a fiduciary standard look out for your best interests first. Financial managers that are not fiduciaries may be highly experienced and skillful, but they can put the interests of their company over the interests of their client. The National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) or Broker Check are great places to start researching Financial Advisors in your area.  

 If you are interested in learning more about Human Investing and our financial planning services, check out our website.  

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As financial planners, we constantly seek opportunities to steward our client’s assets. Protecting your identity is a critical aspect of this responsibility as many of our planning tools and custodian accounts can be accessed on any device at any time. In today’s digital age, identity theft is a growing concern. It has become easier for criminals to steal someone’s identity and wreak havoc on their financial and personal life. Fortunately, you can take steps to protect yourself from identity theft.

Here are 10 ways someone can protect their identity from getting stolen:

1. Create strong and unique passwords: One of the easiest ways to protect your identity is to use strong, unique passwords for all your accounts. A strong password includes a mix of uppercase and lowercase letters, numbers, and symbols. The longer the password, the better. Avoid using the same password for multiple accounts, as this makes it easier for hackers to access all your accounts if they guess one password. Our best advice is to try to come up with a “passphrase” instead of a password. For example, “#Cantwait4theWEEKEND!”  

2. Enable two-factor authentication: Two-factor authentication adds an extra layer of security to your accounts by requiring a code in addition to your password to log in. This code is usually sent to your phone or email, ensuring that only you can access your accounts even if your password is compromised. Do not provide this authentication code to anyone else.

3. Be cautious of phishing scams: Phishing scams are a common tactic used by identity thieves to trick people into giving away their personal information. Be cautious of unsolicited emails or text messages that ask for personal information or contain suspicious links. Always double-check the email sender or phone number to ensure it is legitimate.

4. Regularly monitor your credit report: Review your credit report for errors or fraudulent activity and report any unauthorized accounts or transactions to the credit bureaus and the affected creditors immediately.

5. Freeze your credit if you don’t need to tap into it: A credit freeze restricts access to your credit report, making it difficult for identity thieves to open new credit accounts in your name. Contact each of the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion) to request a freeze.

• Equifax: Call 800-349-9960 or go online.

• Experian: Go online to initiate, or for information, call 888‑397‑3742.

• TransUnion: Call 888-909-8872 or go online.

6. Shred sensitive documents: To prevent identity thieves from piecing together your personal information, shred sensitive documents such as credit card statements, bank statements, and tax documents.

7. Don’t give out sensitive Information: Don't give out personal, financial, or health-care information over the phone, mail, or the Internet unless you have a trusted relationship with the requestor and initiated the contact. Even with trusted contacts, it’s best to send secure information securely. Using online portals to upload information or password-protected files can be a way to protect your information.

8. Secure your devices: Keep your computer, smartphone, and other devices up-to-date with the latest security updates and anti-virus software to protect against malware and other threats. Require a passcode to access your phone or computer if they are idle for an extended period.

9. Be mindful of public Wi-Fi: Avoid using public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive tasks such as online banking, as these networks are often unsecured and vulnerable to hacking.

10. Limit your social media footprint: Be mindful of the personal information you share online, including on social media platforms. Consider adjusting your privacy settings to limit the amount of personal information visible to others. If you are a parent, be mindful of how much of your child’s personal information you share online. Personal information (birthdays, the street they grew up on, etc.) can make security questions and answers vulnerable to hacking in the future.

In today's digital age, protecting your identity is critical, and as financial planners, we encourage our clients to take proactive steps to safeguard their personal and financial information. If you believe that any of your logins have been compromised, our advisors and partners will work swiftly with you to protect your accounts.

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A newly passed bill known as Secure Act 2.0 will change how retirees withdraw from their retirement nest eggs. This fundamental change increases the age at which investors must take money from their retirement accounts, bringing about some impactful financial planning opportunities.

What is an RMD?

Once an investor reaches a specific age, they must withdraw a required minimum distribution (RMD) from their retirement account, such as an IRA or 401(k). The RMD amount is determined by the account holder's age and account balance at the end of the previous year. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) requires RMDs to ensure account holders pay taxes on their retirement savings. RMDs, therefore, can be taxed on both federal and state taxes.

After reaching their RMD age, account holders must begin taking withdrawals from retirement accounts by April 1. Each subsequent year, RMDs must be taken by December 31st of that same year. The IRS may levy a sizable penalty for failure to take the mandatory distribution.

Good news, RMDs will be delayed by a year

A notable update from Secure Act 2.0 is the delay of RMDs. RMDs will start at age 73 instead of 72 for those born in 1951-1959. For those born in 1960 or later, RMDs will be delayed even further to age 75.

For those who turn 72 in 2023, you will not need to start your RMDs this year. Your first RMD can either be taken by December 31, 2024 or delayed until April 1, 2025.

There is no impact on a retiree if they have already started taking their RMDs or need their IRA to cover their cost of living. For others, who only take RMDs because they are required to, this significant modification to the RMD age provides additional retirement planning opportunities.

Retirement Planning opportunities

There will be more time for growth.

The new RMD regulation will give retirees a simple yet powerful benefit, more time for compounding growth. As the billionaire investor Charlie Munger states, “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

This benefit must be highlighted, especially after a year of market losses.

An 8% return on a million-dollar IRA is $80,000. Additional returns undisturbed by an unnecessary RMD can have a snowball effect, providing an exponential lifetime benefit.

A longer window before RMDs can allow for additional planning and time, the essential ingredients in building wealth.  

QCDs can still be maximized.

Amidst the RMD age adjustment, the age at which account holders can use their IRAs to make Qualified Charitable Contributions (QCDs) was untouched. Thus, preserving one of the most powerful tax-saving strategies available to charitably inclined retirees 70.5 and older.

A QCD is a tax-free transfer of funds from an individual's IRA directly to an IRS-recognized charity. This charitable distribution allows taxpayers to avoid paying taxes on the withdrawn funds.

Retiree “Gap Years” are extended.

"Gap Years" are the years that occur between a person's retirement and the beginning of their RMDs. These Gap Years are often the years with the lowest taxable incomes in a person's adult life. As a result, they frequently serve as ideal years for accelerating income that would otherwise be taxable in a subsequent, higher-income year. The Secure Act 2.0's changes will give additional time for Tax Bracket optimization strategies such as Roth Conversions and Capital Gain Realization to reduce an investor's lifetime tax bill.

You may be pushed into a higher tax bracket in your later years.

Like all financial planning strategies, there is no one-size fits. The unanticipated pitfall of postponing RMDs can lead to more significant withdrawals in subsequent years when RMDs do start. An unexpected boost in income from RMDs might push you into a much higher tax bracket, phase you out of a tax credit, or trigger a surtax. Taking the time to understand the applicable tax implications are crucial when building a tax-sensitive retirement income plan.

This is a great time to reevaluate your retirement plan

The retirement system has undergone numerous changes due to Secure Act 2.0's policy reforms, adding to the difficulty of retirement planning. Recognizing the planning opportunities and risks that relate to you and your financial plan is essential.

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It’s a new year, and there are still plenty of old questions about the economy & markets. We thought diving into some questions about today’s economy would be helpful.

2023 Economic Outlook

Many different sources (See Table 1) forecast a recession for 2023. With The Fed combating inflation by raising interest rates, expectations are these moves will force the economy into a downturn. The extent of the recession may depend on The Fed’s actions. If inflation recedes quickly, and The Fed cuts rates or stops raising them, that could minimize a recession or possibly avoid a recession entirely—this is called a “soft landing.” If inflation persists, and The Fed is determined to lower inflation in the face of a declining economy, the recession could be worse. However, market forecasts expect The Fed to cut rates in 2023 in response to a recession. The Fed has yet to forecast those same rate cuts. Based on our observations, the odds are we will experience a mild recession in 2023.

2023 Investment Outlook

Despite the prospects of a recession, investments grow over the long run, and volatility is expected. As we’ve previously covered, it can take years for your portfolio to recover from a downturn. We have always seen markets recover to new all-time highs. With a looming recession, 10-year forecasts for US stocks remain positive.

Downturns present a buying opportunity for investors, particularly workers accumulating for retirement. Continuing to purchase when stocks decline is an excellent investment. Saving more when times are tough is challenging. Ensure you are in good financial shape: have 3-6 months of expenses saved in an emergency fund, pay off any high-interest debt, and consistently spend less than you make. Then consider increasing your savings. Increasing your contribution rate is a wonderful forced savings tool if you have a 401(k) or similar plan.
 
Markets and the Economy
You may have heard the market is forward-looking. We know the market is a flawed prognosticator because prices still adjust daily to reflect new information. Let’s examine how closely market bottoms coincide with recessions.
 
There have been 11 recessions since 1950, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Using the NBER’s trough dates (i.e., the end of a recession), we can compare GDP with the S&P to see when both hit their lowest point. Looking at Table 3, the S&P 500 tends to do one of two things:

1. The market is at its worst about the same time as the economy.

2. The market is at its worst approximately six months before the economy bottoms out.

There are some caveats. Market data is live, and markets are open every business day. GDP data comes out quarterly, advance estimates come out nearly a month after the fact, and aren’t fully revised until around 60 days after initial release. For both the market and economy, knowing when you’ve hit bottom is nearly impossible to determine in the moment. Because it’s difficult to know when the worst is over, we recommend staying invested amidst the potential short-term tumult.

Be prepared for some turbulence this year

Economists and market prognosticators are expecting there will be a recession in 2023. The severity of the recession will vary depending on The Fed. The Unemployment rate remains below historical averages at 3.5%. In November 2022, there were nearly 6 million more job openings than job seekers, suggesting the economy can handle some tightening. Trying to time the market or economy bottom remains a guessing game. Long term, the outlook for returns is still strong. Be prepared for some turbulence this year, knowing you are headed in the right direction long term.

Sources
1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The yield curve as a leading indicator. January 2023.
2. The Wall Street Journal. Economists in WSJ survey still see recession this year despite easing inflation. January 2023.
3. Bloomberg. Economists place 70% chance for US recession in 2023. December 2022.
4. Vanguard. Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2023: Beating back inflation. December 2022.
5. BlackRock. 2023 global outlook. January 2023.
6. Charles Schwab. 2023 market outlook: Cross currents. January 2023.
7. Fidelity. Global outlook 2023: New world disorder. January 2023.
8. Charles Schwab. Schwab's 2023 long-term capital market expectations. January 2023.
9. Vanguard. Market perspectives: December 2022. November 2022.
10. BlackRock. Asset return expectations and uncertainty: as of September 2022 November 2022..
11. Data courtesy of YCharts & NBER

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These are some of our favorite charts and graphs that told the biggest stories from 2022.

Stock Market Performance

Each year, the stock market has its narrative around why it performed the way it did. With 2022 coming to a close and, as of 12/21, the stock market down 17.31%, one of the narratives for this year has been persistent volatility. As the chart above shows, 2022 marks the most days (30) that the market was either up or down 1%at the end of the week. 16 of the instances were down days, and 14 of the instances were positive.

In terms of additional narratives for this year, our team has been referencing a year like 2022 as a “price of admission” year. In other words, to receive the benefit of long-term equity returns, negative years (like 2022) are part of the price of admission to achieve the benefits. We reference this chart when looking at the negative headlines the market has overcome over the years.

INFLATION AND SAVINGS

With interest rates increasing rapidly, there have been many moving parts in all areas of the economy. From real estate to food prices, most industries have been impacted. One area that consumers/investors should look to take advantage of is their saving and checking accounts. During the most recent period of low-interest rates, we have become accustomed to these accounts paying little to nothing in interest. However, as the chart above mentions, Americans are leaving dollars on the table by not searching out higher interest bank accounts. Our team recommends utilizing a local credit union which often has new member checking benefits, or aggregator sites like NerdWallet do a good job of providing high-paying savings accounts.

Market Volatility

With all the market downturns and volatility, we thought it would be interesting to see how long it takes to make your money back, depending on how you are invested. Ensuring your allocations are positioned so you can ride out any downturns is essential for any investor. 

Job Market

It's been a unique time in the jobs market. Job openings have exceeded people searching for jobs by nearly 5 million for 2022. The persistence of this even with all the uncertainty around the economy and inflation is surprising. As a result of the pandemic, more people are seeking remote work. LinkedIn revealed that remote jobs, which take up 15.9% of job listings, attract 52.9% of job applicants.

FTX

2022 charts of the year wouldn’t be complete without referencing the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Even as I write this, new information surrounding this saga continues to emerge, and it will be a high-profile news story to follow into 2023.

The above chart shows how the organization’s value got as high as $32B as recently as January 2022 during FTX’s most recent round of funding. There are many lessons to be learned from fraud scenarios, and like you, we will follow this story into the new year.

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The IRS adjusts tax brackets and rates each year to account for inflation and combat “bracket creep.” Bracket creep is when taxpayers are pushed into higher income tax brackets or do not receive adequate credits and deductions due to inflation. Are you aware of how an increase in the standard deduction and tax brackets will impact you?

What has changed?

1. The standard deduction will increase for the 2023 tax year. See below for a summary of the increases:

 2. Federal income tax brackets will increase to account for inflation in 2023:

What does this mean for you?

While this is welcomed news, these updates will not significantly impact your taxes, cash flow, or budget. These updates are enacted to hedge against inflation and keep things consistent for taxpayers.

In sum, the increase in standard deduction means households will have less income subject to taxes, and the income subject to taxes will be subject to better tax brackets.

We wanted to re-vamp our tax example from 2022 with the updated 2023 numbers to provide a familiar and helpful guide to your taxes. Read on to see a fictitious example of the impact of the increased standard deduction and tax brackets in 2023.

Meet Martin & Angela

Below is a breakdown of their taxable income and taxes due in 2022 compared to 2023.

As you can see, they reported $100,000 of combined income, which is reduced by their pre-tax 401(k) contributions and the standard deduction of $27,700. Because the standard deduction increased from $25,900 in 2022 to $27,700 in 2023, Martin and Angela’s taxable income decreased. This means they are on track to pay less this year in federal taxes.

PORTIONS OF YOUR INCOME GET TAXED AT DIFFERENT RATES

Tax brackets calculate the tax rate you will pay on each portion of your income. Tax brackets are part of our progressive tax system, which means the tax rate increases as someone’s income grows. There are seven federal tax brackets in 2023 (see image 2).

As shown in the image above, Martin and Angela’s taxable income will be split to take advantage of the lowest tax bracket. This means they will be taxed at 10% on the first $22,000 of their joint income, and their remaining taxable income will be taxed at 12%. In 2022, the maximum income allowed at the lowest tax bracket of 10% was $20,550. In 2023, the maximum income allowed will be $22,000.

If Martin and Angela fall into a higher tax bracket in the future, their taxable income will be broken down into each respective bracket to take advantage of the lower rates on what they can.

DRUMROLL, PLEASE…

After completing this exercise for all their taxable income, you can see that Martin and Angela’s total taxes owed in 2022 is $7,881 compared to $7,636 in 2023. This means they will pay $245 less federal taxes in 2023 than in 2022. While this is welcomed news, it is not a life-changing update.

If you have questions about your unique tax situation, please schedule a time to connect with our team. As always, we would love to hear from you!

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes and not predictive of your 2022 tax situation. The fictitious example is not a complete presentation of a tax filing.

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We help our clients organize and implement tax bracket optimization. In your early years of retirement, even if you do not have earned income, there are important tax considerations. I will illustrate two recurring tax planning strategies: Roth Conversions and Capital Gain Realization.

Consider a retired married couple (both age 65) living in Oregon this year.

In this example, this couple has $36,700 of taxable income. This places them in the 12% federal tax bracket and provides $52,750 more room inside the 12% bracket before moving into the 22% bracket.

Considering the wiggle room before the increased tax rate, this client could decide between the following options:

OPTION 1: Realize Capital Gains

Realize (sell and reinvest) up to $52,750 of long-term (held longer than 12 months) capital gains to take advantage of the 0% Federal Capital Gains rate within the 12% bracket. This couple living in Oregon would still pay 9% State. Ideally, they pay less taxes today to avoid realizing those gains at 15% Federal and 9% State later, likely during the required distribution timeframe starting at age 73. They would keep 15% more of the growth on their investments.

Option 2: Conduct Roth Conversions

If a client does not have any taxable accounts or unrealized capital gains, they could use the room in the 12% bracket to conduct Roth conversions. This would consist of transferring funds from a traditional IRA, paying the taxes now (12% Federal and 9% State), and putting the net amount into the Roth IRA to grow tax-free overtime. This strategy is helpful to maximize the 12% bracket, since the 12% bracket will revert to the 15% bracket in 2026, when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) ends. Additionally, when a client turns 73 and is required to take distributions from IRAs, this required distribution amount cannot be converted to a Roth IRA but must be distributed.

Required distributions could also push income from IRAs into the 22% bracket. Another benefit of Roth conversion is that Roth IRAs are not subject to required distribution rules and therefore can continue to grow tax-free for the life of the married couple.

Option 3: Combination of realizing Capital Gains and Roth Conversions

This requires year-by-year income and deductions tracking from all sources to ensure the right amount of money is being realized or converted.

Tax bracket optimization is not an after-thought, but a pivotal component of holistic financial planning offered at Human Investing. If this kind of planning would be helpful to you, please schedule a time to review your situation.

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As a Charted Financial Analyst serving as the firm’s Director of Investments and Compliance, I oversee the construction and management of client portfolios. How we go about investing client capital involves evaluating a variety of factors that move the markets. Given the economic backdrop for 2022, I thought it would be helpful to address a few of the components impacting the economy and subsequent stock and bond market volatility.

Historical trends suggest the current high levels of inflation will not persist.

 Inflation is higher than it has been for decades, exceeding 7.5% in the March to October 2022 numbers, represented in the purple line below. The breakeven rate between a 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) and a standard Treasury is commonly used as a benchmark for what average inflation over the next five years is expected to be. The graph below shows this in orange below, hovering around 2.34%.

What is causing inflation?

There are broadly two types of inflation:

1. Demand-pull inflation occurs when there is too much demand for a limited supply of items (too much money chasing too few goods).

2. Cost-push inflation occurs when the costs of inputs for producers increase, and those costs are passed along to consumers (too few inputs to produce too many goods).

Both factors are helping push inflation higher. Government stimulus in response to COVID and global supply chains having to adjust in response to the pandemic have both had their part in increasing inflation, along with many other factors.

What brings inflation down?

Macroeconomic theory believes that inflation falls when an economy slows down. A slower economy usually means higher unemployment and less spending and investment. This means there isn’t too much demand-pull inflation occurring because higher unemployment means there are fewer wages chasing the goods produced. Higher unemployment also tends to lead to lower cost-push inflation because the cost of labor typically goes down when unemployment is high.

The Fed is still working on a soft landing.

Higher inflation is not healthy for an economy long term. Banks still want to make money even when inflation is high, so they lend at higher rates to ensure they still make a profit after accounting for inflation. Higher interest rates result in a higher cost of borrowing, making any investment (buying a house, going to college, launching a new business, building a new production facility, etc.) more expensive. Households and companies invest less, which means fewer productive and good investments happen, slowing down the overall economy.

Because high inflation is unhealthy for an economy, the Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”, the US central bank) is raising interest rates. The Fed’s goal is to raise interest rates high enough to slow down the economy and bring down inflation. The concern is that The Fed will be too aggressive in raising interest rates and cause a sharp economic downturn. The hope is The Fed can execute a soft landing, slowing down the economy enough to reign in inflation but not slowing down so much to trigger a major recession.

The job market is still experiencing labor scarcity.

Currently, there are about 5 million more open jobs than people looking for a job. Unemployment is below 4%, near the historical lows we were experiencing pre-pandemic. Due to labor scarcity, employees are seeing their wages rise.

The overall economy is seeing consistent growth.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most used measure of the size of an economy. Real GDP (rGDP) accounts for inflation. The orange line is a “trendline” for real GDP, based on the average growth of rGDP from 2012 to 2017. As you can see, GDP is not far off from what would have been expected if the COVID downturn & recovery had never occurred. While the first half of 2022 had two-quarters of negative GDP growth (a common definition of a recession), Q3 2022 saw the economy grow.

Company earnings are still increasing despite downturns.

The following chart illustrates earnings growth compared to the S&P 500. The market tends is forward-looking, setting prices based on what is expected to happen. Current fears about inflation & The Fed triggering a downturn by raising interest rates too much too quickly are pushing the market down. Earnings reflect what companies earned in the previous three months. While there is a lot of anxiety about the state of the economy, companies are continuing to earn money and will continue to do so even in a downturn.

What does this mean for you and your portfolio?

In conclusion, there are contradictory messages. The economy quickly recovered from the global pandemic, and the workers are enjoying a solid labor market with wages rising. The positive economic news is contrasted with poor investor experience in the stock market. Concerns about high inflation and The Fed’s anticipated aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation have the market worrying about a recession. With all this happening, companies have continued to grow their earnings.

While there is conflicting information in the short term, we continue to anticipate long-term growth in the economy and stock market. Having a sound financial plan that accounts for downturns and uncertainties is crucial. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions about your plan or have had any changes in your financial situation.

All data courtesy of YCharts Nov 29, 2022.

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Don’t let time run out on these end-of-year tax plays. Not having a tax projection done can be a costly mistake. Besides giving you peace of mind in April, in order for you to pay the lowest percentage of taxes over your lifetime you have to plan and utilize every opportunity. Sometimes this means paying more dollars in tax in the current year to seize and maximize that lower rate.

For Lower Income Tax Brackets

 While your income is low, it may make sense for you to realize more income now and better utilize your low tax rates. 

1. Roth 401K and Roth IRA contributions: Contributing to a Roth 401k or Roth IRA may cost you more in taxes today, but it allows those dollars to grow tax-free. If you can do this early in your career and give your retirement dollars a long time to grow, the tax savings will be enormous.

2. 0% federal tax on capital gains: Many people are unaware that the IRS actually allows for a 0% tax on capital gains (Example: Gain from sale of stock). If your taxable income is below $44,625 Single $89,250 Married-Filed-Jointly, you may want to realize additional gains this year by selling stock to take advantage of these low rates. Keep in mind you may still need to pay state & local taxes on these sales but selling at the 0% federal tax bracket is an opportunity you can’t afford to pass up.

3. Lower your tax bracket when your income is low in retirement: Sometimes this situation occurs not when you are starting your career but when you are ending it. In the years between retirement and age 72, when Required Minimum Distributions start, there are opportunities to take advantage of these low tax brackets as well.

4. Lower your tax withholdings in January: If you are getting a large refund, adjust your withholdings on your paycheck for the next year. Adjusting early in the year keeps more money in your pocket each month. Do not give the IRS an interest-free loan.

For Middle Income Tax Brackets

As you start making more money and entering higher tax brackets, this is the time to start looking for deductions. 

1. Maximize your employee benefits: Have you maximized your employee benefits (including catch-up at age 50), H.S.A., and other benefits? When you are a W-2 employee, the best place to look for deductions is at work. Many companies will also offer some sort of match on retirement contributions. By not putting enough or anything into your workplace retirement plan, you may be leaving money on the table.

2. Tax loss harvesting: One place you might go looking for additional deductions is your brokerage account. While no one likes to lose money on their investments, Capital losses can offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income each year. If your income is high you may want to harvest losses for two reasons:

   1. Taking losses now allows you to put off paying tax in favor of paying down the road when it might be cheaper, potentially 0% or 15% federally.

   2. To stay out of the 20% highest capital gains bracket ($492,301 Single, $553,851 Married-Filed-Jointly for 2023)

3. Non-Deductible IRA contribution: If you are already doing the items above and want to put more away for retirement, you might consider funding a non-deductible IRA. You (and your spouse) can put up to $6,500 (for 2023) into an IRA each year. This puts after-tax dollars into an IRA which could later be converted to a Roth IRA, which can grow tax-free. Keep in mind that the IRS views all of your IRAs as one IRA. Any distribution or conversion must be done proportionally to your taxable and non-taxable balances. If you have taxable amounts in your IRA, you may owe tax on any conversions.

4. Raise your tax withholdings in January: If you owed a lot in April last year, it may be an indicator that you need to adjust your withholdings for the coming year or make estimated payments. The IRS requires you to pay the tax due at least quarterly. January is a good time to adjust your withholdings because you have the entire year for the changes to take effect. This means you can make the smallest change to your net pay and still yield the desired effect at year-end.

For Higher Income Tax Brackets

When you find yourself with a surplus of money, living generously may yield additional tax savings.

1. Charitable contributions using stocks: While contributing to charity generally does not save you more than you spend on your taxes if you have the heart to give there are efficient tax strategies that can allow your donation to go further. As changes to itemized deductions have vastly limited the amount of benefit many people can get from making charitable contributions, with careful planning, there are ways you may still save big.

   1. Contributing long-term appreciated stock may allow you to gain a charitable contribution for the fair market value of the stock and never pay the capital tax from the sale.

   2. Utilizing a donor-advised fund may allow you to bunch several years of donations into a single year. This could allow you to take larger deductions over several years.

   3. If you are over age 70.5 and not itemizing your deductions it may make sense for you to contribute straight out of your IRA with a Qualified Charitable Distribution. These donations get paid straight from your IRA and are not taxed.

2. $16,000 gifts to your children: If you are planning to transfer a large estate to your children upon your death it may make sense for you to utilize the annual gift limits and give each year to potentially lower taxes on your estate. These gift limits are annual and adjust with inflation. Current limits are $16,000 per year per individual. This means a husband and wife could give $16,000 each to a child for a total of $32,000. If that child is married, they could also give their child’s spouse the same amount without filing a tax return.

   To be clear, you can give all the way up to your lifetime limit in a given year without paying taxes, but giving more than $16,000 requires you to file a gift tax return and reduce your lifetime estate.

When it comes to taxes, Benjamin Franklin said it best when he said “failing to plan is planning to fail”. If you have not done so already, get your tax plan going before the end of the year. 

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